FX MORNING UPDATE

                                                                                     

USDINR opened at 70.06 y’day and the pair traded in the 70.05-70.64 range. Spot USDINR closed at 70.47, gain of 27 ps for USD as against prior close of 70.20. RBI reference rate was fixed at 70.44. Jan USD/INR closed at 70.63, gain of 28 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 70.35. Jan Euro/INR closed at 80.96, GBP/INR at 89.91 and Yen/INR at 64.92. Oil demand and USD buying by Foreign banks contributed to Rupee weakness.

FII’S have sold Rs 1037 Cr of Indian Equities in Jan till date . FII’S have bought Rs 1114 Cr of Indian debt securities in Jan till date .

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.49% y’day. DOW climbed 91 points (0.39%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 1.10% and Hang seng climbed 2.27 % y’day.

Euro is now at,1.1568 Pound at 1.2794,Yen at 107.89.     

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1297 and WT1Crude at USD 51.87 /Brent at USD 60.91.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.728% and 3 m libor closed at 2.90%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.53%.        

Economic news: Global stocks are lifted by news that China-US trade talks in Beijing are extending into an unscheduled third day, with signs of good progress. 

Data highlights : –  EU unemployment rate declined to 7.9%.

Thursday’s calendar: -US weekly jobless claims.

 

USD/INR   70.64 70.05
EUR/USD 1.1568 1.1558 1.1441
GBP/USD 1.2794 1.2804 1.2716
USD/JPY 107.89 108.26 107.85

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1518 1.1595 1.1635 1.1713 1.1478 1.1401 1.1361
GBP/USD 1.2773 1.2830 1.2861 1.2917 1.2742 1.2685 1.2654
USD/JPY 108.39

 

108.79 109.40 109.81

 

107.78 107.38 106.77

 

USD/INR 70.38 70.72 70.97   70.12 69.75

 

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1270/1.1215 1.1500/1.1620 SIDE UP>1.17
GBP/USD 1.2475/1.2360 1.28 DOWN SIDE>1.28
USD/JPY 105 109.75/111.35 SIDE UP>111.35
USD/INR 69.20 71 SIDE UP > 71
USD/CHF 0.9790 1.0130 SIDE  UP >1.0010

Technicals: Spot closed below 20,50 and 100 day moving averages but still above 200 day major moving average. 20 day moving average is at 70.47. 50 day moving average is at 71.27. 200 day moving average is at 69.35. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 69.20. Important support zone is at 69.20. Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Jan contract are:

PP: 70.49,S1:70.19, S2:69.75, R1:70.93, R2:71.23                                                              

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below 200 day moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.1500 and later at 1.1620. Major support is at 1.1265/1.12. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1265. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1805.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 200 day moving average.Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2480 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3298. Important resistance is at 1.28. Important support is at 1.2475 and later at 1.2360.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 114. Next important support is at 109.80. Important resistance is at  112.50.

    

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