FX MORNING UPDATE

11/12/2018

                                                                                     

USDINR opened higher at 71.31 y’day and the pair traded in the 71.23-71.45 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.34, gain of 54 ps for USD as against prior close of 70.80. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.32. Rupee fell on exit poll results and crude production cut. Nov USD/INR closed at 71.48, gain of 56 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 70.92. Nov Euro/INR closed at 81.75, GBP/INR at 90.89 and Yen/INR at 63.60.

FII’S have sold Rs 109 Cr in Indian Equities in Dec . FII’S have bought Rs 9143 Cr of Indian debt securities in Dec till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have sold Rupees 26791 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold  Rupees 47914 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 1.92% y’day. DOW declined 554 points (2.24%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 2.12% and Hang seng declined 1.19% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1379, Pound at 1.2752,Yen at 112.69.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1254 and WT1Crude at USD 52.14 /Brent at USD 61.31.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.85% and 3 m libor closed at 2.75%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.59%.        

Economic news: RBI Governor resigned on personal grounds. However, there has been a clash of opinion between RBI and Govt on host of issues ranging from liquidity to banking issues. Rupee would be jolted initially and it remains to be seen as to what steps Govt proposes to take to stem financial market volatility.

Data highlights : – :- EU sentix investor confidence declined to -0.3.

-UK Industrial production declined -0.6% m/m and manufacturing production declined -0.9% m/m.

Tuesday’s calendar: -US PPI

-German and EU Zew surveys

-UK claimant count change and unemployment rate      

USD/INR   71.45 71.23
EUR/USD 1.1379 1.1423 1.1360
GBP/USD 1.2752 1.2790 1.2712
USD/JPY 112.69 112.93 112.56

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1387 1.1415  1.1451    1.1351 1.1323  
GBP/USD 1.2751 1.2790  1.2829    1.2712 1.2673  
USD/JPY 112.72

 

112.89  113.09  

 

 112.51 112.35  

 

USD/INR 71.34 71.45 71.56   71.23 71.12

 

 

 

 

                                                                                                                                               

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1215 1.1500/1.1620 DOWN SIDE>1.15
GBP/USD 1.2660 1.3175/1.33 DOWN UP>1.3175
USD/JPY 112.30/111.30 114.10 UP DN<111.35
USD/INR 69.50 71 SIDE UP>71
USD/CHF 0.9845 1.0130 UP  DN <0.9845

Technicals: Spot closed avove 20,100 and 200 day movong averages but still below 50 day major moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.24. 50 day moving average is at 72.50. 200 day moving average is at 68.78. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 69.50 . Important support zone is at 69.50. Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for DEC contract are:

PP: 71.42,S1:71.26, S2:71.05, R1:71.63, R2:71.79.                                                              

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1500 and later at 1.1620. Major support is at 1.12. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1215. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1805.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 200 day moving average.Trend is sideways in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3175 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2665. Important resistance is at 1.3175 and later at 1.33. Important support is at 1.2660.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 114. Next important support is at 112.30/111.35. Important resistance is at  114.10.

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