FX MORNING UPDATE 

                                                                                      

USDINR opened at 70.45 y’day and the pair traded in the 70.31-70.89 range. Spot USDINR closed at 70.87, gain of 18 ps for USD as against prior close of 70.69. RBI reference rate was fixed at 70.71. Rupee continued its strength since its lows of 74.45 on Oct 12 th. FII inflows in Nov and declining Crude prices have contributed to Rupee strength. RBI seems to have bought USD through nationalized banks y’day. Nov USD/INR closed at 70.84, gain of 15 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 70.69. Nov Euro/INR closed at 80.56, GBP/INR at 91.05 and Yen/INR at 62.58.

FII’S have invested Rs 9578 Cr in Indian Equities in Nov till date . FII’S have bought Rs 2191 Cr of Indian debt securities in Nov till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have sold Rupees 27666 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold  Rupees 57128 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.97% y’day. DOW climbed 354 points (1.46%). Asian markets are trading mixed today.

Euro closed the week at 1.1334, Pound at 1.2810,Yen at 113.41.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1227 and WT1Crude at USD 51.27/Brent at USD 60.30.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.06% and 3 m libor closed at 2.39%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.73%.        

Economic news: Global focus is on US and Chinese heads of state meeting on Nov 30 th. They are to discuss trade issues. If outcome is negative, USD could be a beneficiary.

Data highlights :- German Ifo survey dipped marginally to 102.

Tuesday’s calendar:- US house price index and consumer confidence.

 

USD/INR   70.89 70.31
EUR/USD 1.1336 1.1383 1.1325
GBP/USD 1.2813 1.2863 1.2796
USD/JPY 112.97 113.65 112.91

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1347 1.1369 1.1405 1.1427 1.1311 1.1289 1.1253
GBP/USD 1.2824 1.2852 1.2891 1.2919 1.2785 1.2757 1.2718
USD/JPY 113.35

 

113.79 114.09 114.53

 

113.05 112.61 112.31

 

USD/INR 70.69 71.07 71.27   70.49 70.11

 

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1215 1.1500/1.1620 DOWN SIDE>1.15
GBP/USD 1.2660 1.3175/1.33 DOWN UP>1.3050
USD/JPY 111.35/110.30 114.20 UP DN<111.35
USD/INR 70.35/69.80 71.50/72.45 SIDE UP>72.40
USD/CHF 0.9845 1.0130 UP  DN <0.9845

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving         is at 72.59. 50 day moving average is at 72.85. 200 day moving average is at 68.41. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 74.47 . Important support zone is at 69.80. Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Nov contract are:

PP: 70.64,S1:70.41, S2:70, R1:71.06, R2:71.28.                                                              

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1500 and later at 1.1620. Major support is at 1.12. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1215. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1805.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 200 day moving average.Trend is sideways in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3175 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2665. Important resistance is at 1.3175 and later at 1.33. Important support is at 1.2660.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 114.20. Next important support is at 112.30/111.35. Important resistance is at  114.20/114.40

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