FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.42 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.42-83.46 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.42, loss of 5  ps for USD as against prior close of 83.47.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.44 on 15/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 83.46, loss of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.49. Apr Euro/INR closed at 89.05, GBP/INR at 104.33 and Yen/INR at 54.29. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.57% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 648 bn, as on April 5 th. Reserves increased by USD 2.5 bn w/w.

PAIRS	RBI REF RATE (15/04)
USDINR	83.44
EURINR	88.91
GBPINR	104.07
JPYINR	54.25

In April, FPI’S have bought Rs 10992 Cr of Equities and sold Rs 3201 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 247 points (1.10%) y’day. US S&P declined 61 points (1.20%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.30% and Hang Seng declined 0.26% on Friday.

Euro is now at 1.0610, Pound at 1.2431, Yen at 154.36.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2381 and WT1Crude at USD 86/Brent at USD 90.50.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.59% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.18%.

Economic news: Rupee’s path was controlled by RBI within a small range, between 83.42/83.46. This is despite, strong USD rally against majors.

March exports declined marginally to USD 41.68 bn, while imports fell to USD 57.28 bn. March trade deficit narrowed to USD 15.6 bn. For the full year, trade deficit is at USD 240.16 bn. Overall deficit (trade+services) narrowed to USD 78.17 bn, thanks to surplus in services exports. Services surplus was at USD 162.06 bn. Overall merchandise exports dipped to USD 437.06 bn from previous year data of USD 451.07 bn. Imports also declined 5.4% in FY23-24 to USD 677 bn.

US retail sales rose 0.7% mom to 709.6B in June, above expectation of 0.4% mom.

Euro declined as ECB members presented a divided opinion on rate cuts.

Data highlights: — US retail sales climbed 0.7% m/m. Core sales climbed 1.1% m/m.

-EU industrial production climbed 0.8% m/m.

Tuesday’s calendar : -US building permits, housing starts and industrial production.

-EU and German Zew surveys

-UK unemployment rate and claimant count change.

USD/INR			83.46	83.42
EUR/USD	1.0610		1.0665	1.0620
GBP/USD	1.2431		1.2500	1.2435
USD/JPY	154.36		154.46	153.28

 Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs	Pivot	R1	R2	R3	S1	S2	S3
EURO/USD	1.0637	1.0654	1.0682	1.0699	1.0609	1.0592	1.0564
GBP/USD	1.2460	1.2485	1.2525	1.2550	1.2420	1.2395	1.2356
USD/JPY	153.99	154.70	155.17	155.88	153.52	152.81	152.35
USD/INR	83.43	83.45	83.47		83.40	83.39

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair	Supports	Resistances	Trend	Remarks
EURO/USD	1.0520/1.0450	1.0725/1.0885	DN	UP>1.0885
GBP/USD	1.2430/1.2330	1.2535/1.2720	DN	UP>1.2720
USD/JPY	152/150.80	154.50	UP	SIDE<150.80
USD/INR	83.27/83.165	83.70	UP	SIDE<83.15
USD/CHF	0.90	0.9230	UP	SIDE<0.90

Technicals: Spot closed above major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.21. 50 day moving average is at 83.06. 200 day moving average is at 82.94. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.17 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:

PP: 83.44, S1:83.40, S2:83.35, R1:83.49, R2:83.53.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD imports be hedged on decline to 83.27/83.16.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0725/1.0885. Next major support is at 1.0520/1.0450. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0885. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.

GBP/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2710 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.2430/1.2340. Important resistance is at 1.2535/1.2720.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 150.80. Important resistance is at 154.50 and support is at 152/150.80.

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