15/11/2018
USDINR opened at 72.16 Y’day and the pair traded in the 71.99-72.40 range. Spot USDINR closed at 72.30, loss of 36 ps for USD as against prior close of 72.66. RBI reference rate was fixed at 72.10. Rupee gained as Crude Oil slumped 7% y’day. Nov USD/INR closed at 72.40, loss of 38 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 72.78. Nov Euro/INR closed at 81.65, GBP/INR at 93.48 and Yen/INR at 63.63.
FII’S have invested Rs 4645 Cr in Indian Equities in Nov till date . FII’S have bought Rs 80 Cr of Indian debt securities in Nov till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have sold Rupees 32599 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 59239 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.06% y’day. DOW declined 205 points (0.81%) Y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.16% and Hang seng declined 0.54% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1315, Pound at 1.2990,Yen at 113.53
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1204 and WT1Crude at USD 56/Brent at USD 66.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.12% and 3 m libor closed at 2.39%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.73%.
Economic news: Crude recovered partly from Tuesday’s 7% slump on reports that OPEC and its partners are discussing a proposal to cut output by up to 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd), a larger figure than officials have mentioned previously.
German GDP contracted -0.2% qoq in Q3, slightly better than expectation of -0.3% qoq. That’s also the first quarter-on-quarter decline since Q1 2015. Japanese GDP contracted -0.3% qoq in Q3, matched expectation. Annualized rate showed -1.2% contraction, worse than expectation of -1.0%.
Data highlights :-US CPI climbed 0.3% m/m, in line with consensus.
-EU Q3 GDP climbed 0.2% q/q and industrial production declined -0.3% m/m.
-UK CPI climbed 2.4% y/y, RPI climbed 3.3% y/y and PPI(output) climbed 0.3% m/m.
Thursday’s calendar:- US retail sales, weekly jobless claims and NY mfrg index
-UK retail sales
| USD/INR | 72.40 | 71.99 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1315 | 1.1344 | 1.1264 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2990 | 1.3071 | 1.2885 |
| USD/JPY | 113.53 | 114 | 113.31 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1307 | 1.1350 | 1.1387 | 1.1430 | 1.1270 | 1.1227 | 1.1190 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2980 | 1.3075 | 1.3166 | 1.3261 | 1.2889 | 1.2794 | 1.2703 |
| USD/JPY | 113.62
|
113.93 | 114.31 | 114.62
|
113.24 | 112.93 | 112.55
|
| USD/INR | 72.23 | 72.47 | 72.64 | 72.06 | 71.82
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.13 | 1.1500/1.1620 | DOWN | SIDE>1.15 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2925/1.3050 | 1.2660 | DOWN | UP>1.3050 |
| USD/JPY | 112.90/111.35 | 114.70 | UP | DN<111.35 |
| USD/INR | 72 | 73.10/74.50 | SIDE | UP>73.10 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9770/0.9450 | 1.0070 | UP | DN <0.9770 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 73.22. 50 day moving average is at 72.82. 200 day moving average is at 68.11. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 74.47 . Important support zone is at 72.40. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Nov contract are:
PP: 72.33,S1:72.15, S2:71.91, R1:72.57, R2:72.75.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1500 and later at 1.1620. Major support is at 1.13. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1505. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1805.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 200 day moving average.Trend is sideways in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2790 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2665. Important resistance is at 1.3175 and later at 1.33. Important support is at 1.2660.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 111.35. Next important support is at 112.90/111.35. Important resistance is at 114.60.
