FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.27 on Monday and the pair traded in the 83.24-83.34 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.30, loss of 2 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.32.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.32 on 08/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 83.35, unchanged for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.35. Euro/INR closed at 90.35, GBP/INR at 105.15 and Yen/INR at 55.08. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.62% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 645.58 bn, as on March 29 th.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (08/04) |
|
USDINR |
83.32 |
|
EURINR |
90.25 |
|
GBPINR |
105.23 |
|
JPYINR |
54.88 |
In April, FPI’S sold Rs 2680 Cr of Equities and sold Rs 3508 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 23 points (0.10%) y’day. US S&P climbed 7 points (0.14%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.13% and Hang Seng climbed 0.57% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0854, Pound at 1.2677, Yen at 151.71.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2349 and WT1Crude at USD 85/Brent at USD 89.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.35% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.12%.
Economic news: USD declined modestly against majors, positioning ahead of US CPI and FOMC minutes.
Indian CPI, IIP and US CPI and PPI are important events for the week.
Data highlights: — EU sentix investor confidence climbed to -5.9.
Wednesday’s calendar : US CPI and FOMC minutes
|
USD/INR |
|
83.34 |
83.24 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0854 |
1.0886 |
1.0847 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2677 |
1.2711 |
1.2647 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
151.71 |
151.95 |
151.57 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0863 |
1.0879 |
1.0902 |
1.0918 |
1.0840 |
1.0824 |
1.0801 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2678 |
1.2709 |
1.2742 |
1.2773 |
1.2645 |
1.2614 |
1.2581 |
|
USD/JPY |
151.76 |
151.95 |
152.14 |
152.34 |
151.57 |
151.38 |
151.19 |
|
USD/INR |
83.29 |
83.34 |
83.39 |
|
83.24 |
83.19 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0725 |
1.0875 |
DN |
UP>1.0875 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2540 |
1.2685/1.28 |
SIDE |
UP>1.2685 |
|
USD/JPY |
149/146.50/144.35 |
152 |
UP |
SIDE<149 |
|
USD/INR |
83.20/83.05 |
83.47/83.70/84.10 |
UP |
SIDE<83. |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8890/0.8725 |
0.91 |
UP |
DN<0.8725 |
Technicals: Spot closed above major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.12. 50 day moving average is at 83.04. 200 day moving average is at 82.91. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.20 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed below the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP: 83.33, S1:83.28, S2:83.21, R1:83.40, R2:83.45.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD imports be hedged on decline to 83.20/83.05.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is between moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0875/1.10. Next major support is at 1.0725. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important support at 1.0725. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.
GBP/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2535 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.2535. Important resistance is at 1.2685/1.28.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 146.50. Important resistance is at 152 and support is at 149/146.50.
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