27/04/2018

USDINR opened at 66.94 Y’day and the pair traded in the 66.70-66.94 range. Spot USDINR closed at 66.75, loss of 15 ps for USD as against prior close of 66.90.RBI reference rate was fixed at 66.82. May USD/INR closed at 66.94, loss of 24 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 67.18. May Euro/INR closed at 81.73, GBP/INR at 93.56 and Yen/INR at 61.41.

FII’S have sold Rs 4181 Cr of Indian Equities in April till date . FII’S have sold 3586 Cr of Indian debt securities in April . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 10702 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold  Rupees 5487 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.45% y’day. DOW climbed 59 points (0.24%) y’day.Nikkei climbed 0.47%  and Hang seng declined 1.06% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.2110, Pound at 1.3927,Yen at 109.19.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1317and WT1Crude at USD 67.91.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.03% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.76%.        

Economic news: ECB left rates and asset purchases unchanged. ECB Chief was moderately upbeat as he noted that data since March “points towards some moderation” in growth. However, they are still “consistent with a solid and broad-based expansion of the euro area economy”. Also, ECB Chief added that “the underlying strength of the euro area economy continues to support our confidence that inflation will converge towards our inflation aim of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.”

US Weekly jobless claims declined to 5 decades low and trade deficit narrowed to USD 68 bn in March as against -75 bn consensus.

Data Highlights: – US weekly jobless claims declined to 209k and durables order climbed 2.6% m/m.

Friday’s calendar: – US GDP (advance estimate)

-Japanese unemployment rate, industrial production, retail sales and housing starts.

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving         is at 65.55. 50 day moving average is at 65.12. 200 day moving average is at 64.45. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 64.85 . Important support zone is at 66.25 and later at 65.90. Important resistance is  at 67.40. Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for May contract are:

PP: 67,S1:66.82, S2:66.72, R1:67.11, R2:67.28

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages, but below 20 and 50 day moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2415 and later at 1.2475. Major support is at 1.2150. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2415. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.

GBP/USD: Trend is sideways in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading above 200 day major moving average. Important resistance is at 1.4375. Important support is at 1.3915 and later at 1.3715.      

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.56. Important support is at 104.56. Important resistance is  at 108 and later at 110.40.