FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened gap down at 83.33 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.29-83.40 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.33, gain of 2  ps for USD as against prior close of 83.31.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.325 on 27/03. Apr USD/INR closed at 83.40, gain of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.36. Apr Euro/INR closed at 90.42, GBP/INR at 105.38 and Yen/INR at 55.56. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.57% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 642 bn, as on March 15 th. Reserves climbed USD 6 bn w/w.

PAIRS	RBI REF RATE (27/03)
USDINR	83.3250
EURINR	90.22
GBPINR	105.13
JPYINR	54.92

In March, FPI’S bought Rs 35926 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 13439 Cr of debt . In last calendar year, FII’S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 119 points (0.54%) y’day. US S&P climbed 45 points (0.86%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.73% and Hang Seng declined 1.36% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0819, Pound at 1.2624, Yen at 151.50.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2188 and WT1Crude at USD 82/Brent at USD 85.73.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.22% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.07%.

Economic news:  Indian CAD declined to 1.2% of GDP (USD 10.5 bn) in Q3 FY 24. This was against USD 16.8 bn in same period last year. Merchandise deficit rose marginally to USD 71.6 bn as against USD 71.3 bn during the same period last year. FDI inflows shrunk sharply to USD 8.5 bn in Apr-Dec period as against USD 21.6 bn during the same period in FY 22-23. FPI inflows rose to USD 12 bn in Q3 as against USD 4.6 bn in Q3 FY 22-23.

Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator rose from 95.5 to 96.3 in March, above expectation of 96.1. Eurozone industry confidence rose from -9.4 to -8.8. Services confidence rose from 6.0 to 6.3. Consumer confidence rose from -15.5 to -14.9. 

Data highlights: – No major data release.

Thursday’s calendar : – US Weekly jobless claims, pending home sales

-German retail sales

-UK GDP(final) q/q.

USD/INR			83.40	83.29
EUR/USD	1.0819		1.0839	1.0810
GBP/USD	1.2624		1.2642	1.2605
USD/JPY	151.50		151.97	151.03

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs	Pivot	R1	R2	R3	S1	S2	S3
EURO/USD	1.0820	1.0830	1.0849	1.0859	1.0801	1.0791	1.0772
GBP/USD	1.2621	1.2637	1.2658	1.2674	1.2600	1.2584	1.2564
USD/JPY	151.43	151.83	152.37	152.77	150.89	150.49	149.95
USD/INR	83.32	83.34	83.44		83.23	83.20

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair	Supports	Resistances	Trend	Remarks
EURO/USD	1.09	1.07	DN	UP>1.10
GBP/USD	1.2515	1.28/1.29	DN	UP>1.2805
USD/JPY	149/146.50/144.35	152.50	UP	SIDE<149
USD/INR	83.20	83.47/83.70/84.10	SIDE	UP>83.50
USD/CHF	0.8890/0.8725	0.91	UP	DN<0.8725

Technicals: Spot closed above major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.98. 50 day moving average is at 83. 200 day moving average is at 82.89. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.20 and important resistance is at 83.47/83.70. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:

PP: 83.43, S1:83.32, S2:83.25, R1:83.51, R2:83.61.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD imports be hedged on decline to 83.20.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.09/1.10. Next major support is at 1.07. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important support at 1.07. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.

GBP/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.29 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2517. Important support is at 1.2515. Important resistance is at 1.28/1.29.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 146.50. Important resistance is at 152.50 and support is at 149/146.50.