FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.07 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.05-83.15 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.12, loss of 6 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.18.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.13 on 21/03. Mar USD/INR closed at 83.13, loss of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.18. Mar Euro/INR closed at 90.71, GBP/INR at 105.97 and Yen/INR at 55.10. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.61% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 636 bn, as on March 8 th. Reserves climbed USD 11 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (20/03) |
|
USDINR |
83.13 |
|
EURINR |
90.91 |
|
GBPINR |
106.36 |
|
JPYINR |
55.06 |
In March, FPI’S bought Rs 38538 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 10599 Cr of debt . In last calendar year, FII’S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 173 points (0.79%) y’day. US S&P climbed 17 points (0.32%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 2.08% and Hang Seng climbed 1.93% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0865, Pound at 1.2674, Yen at 151.53.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2185 and WT1Crude at USD 81/Brent at USD 85.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.26% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.05%.
Economic news: BoE maintained the Bank Rate at 5.25% as widely expected. BOE said that most measures of short term inflation is on a downtrend. BoE provided no definitive guidance on rate reductions. Despite some progress in reducing inflation, service sector prices continue to be a concern, remaining stubbornly high.
EU PMI Composite ticked up from 49.2 to 49.9, also a 9-month high. UK PMI Composite ticked down from 53.0 to 52.9.
US PMI Composite also fell from 52.5 to 52.2. PMI survey data point to another quarter of robust GDP growth accompanied by sustained hiring as companies continue to report new order growth. A steepening rise in costs, combined with strengthened pricing power amid the recent upturn in demand, meant inflationary pressures gathered pace again in March. Costs have increased on the back of further wage growth and rising fuel prices, pushing overall selling price inflation for goods and services up to its highest for nearly a year. The steep jump in prices from the recent low seen in January hints at unwelcome upward pressure on consumer prices in the coming months.”
Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims dipped to 210k, existing home sales climbed to 4.38 mn.
-US PMI(mfrg) improved to 49.9 and PMI(services) dipped marginally to 53.8.
-EU PMI(mfrg-flash) was reported at 45.7and (services-flash) is in expansion mode at 51.1.
Friday’s calendar : – German Ifo
-UK retail sales.
|
USD/INR |
|
83.16 |
83.05 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0938 |
1.0943 |
1.0855 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2801 |
1.2803 |
1.2651 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
150.31 |
151.77 |
150.27 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0887 |
1.0919 |
1.0975 |
1.1006 |
1.0831 |
1.0799 |
1.0743 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2705 |
1.2759 |
1.2858 |
1.2912 |
1.2607 |
1.2552 |
1.2454 |
|
USD/JPY |
151.23 |
152.19 |
152.73 |
153.69 |
150.69 |
149.73 |
149.18 |
|
USD/INR |
83.11 |
83.17 |
83.22 |
|
83.06 |
83 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0830 |
1.0990/1.1040 |
UP |
DN<1.0830 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.26 |
1.29/1.2975 |
UP |
DN<1.26 |
|
USD/JPY |
146/144.35 |
149.20/151 |
SIDE |
DN<146.20 |
|
USD/INR |
82.96 |
83.26/83.35 |
UP |
DN<82.92 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8725 |
0.89 |
UP |
DN<0.8675 |
Technicals: Spot closed above major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.89. 50 day moving average is at 82.98. 200 day moving average is at 82.89. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.92/82.81/82.65 and important resistance is at 83.26/83.35. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for March contract are:
PP: 83.11, S1:83.06, S2:83, R1:83.17, R2:83.22.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 83.25.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0995/1.1040. Next major support is at 1.0830. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important support at 1.07. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2517 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2517. Important support is at 1.26/1.2515. Important resistance is at 1.29/1.2995.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 20 day, but still above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 150.90. Important resistance is at 149.20/150.90 and support is at 146/144.35.
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