26/04/2018
USDINR opened at 66.47 Y’day and the pair traded in the 66.47-66.90 range. Spot USDINR closed at 66.90, gain of 52 ps for USD as against prior close of 66.38.RBI reference rate was fixed at 66.69. May USD/INR closed at 67.18, gain of 56 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 66.62. May Euro/INR closed at 82.03, GBP/INR at 93.76 and Yen/INR at 61.64.
Rupee weakness was unabated with RBI sellig USD sporadically.
FII’S have sold Rs 4181 Cr of Indian Equities in April till date . FII’S have sold 3586 Cr of Indian debt securities in April . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 10702 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 5487 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.41% y’day. DOW climbed 59 points (0.24%) y’day.Nikkei declined 0.28% and Hang seng declined 1.01% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.2172, Pound at 1.3941,Yen at 109.38.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1325and WT1Crude at USD 68.41.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.03% and 3 m libor closed at 2.29%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.74%.
Economic news: ECB meeting is the focus event of the day. Despite expectations that the ECB would only announce adjustments on QE and interest rate in June at the earliest, today’s meeting is not a non-event. Since the March meeting, Eurozone’s economic data have surprised to the downside. It would be of great interest to see the policymakers’ interpretation of the situation. USD rally continued against majors as US 10 Year yield crossed 3%.
Data Highlights: – No major data.
Thursday’s calendar: – US weekly jobless claims and durables order
| USD/INR | 66.90 | 66.47 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.2172 | 1.2237 | 1.2160 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3941 | 1.3993 | 1.3923 |
| USD/JPY | 109.38 | 109.47 | 108.79 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.2189 | 1.2218 | 1.2266 | 1.2295 | 1.2141 | 1.2112 | 1.2064 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3951 | 1.3979 | 1.4021 | 1.4049 | 1.3909 | 1.3881 | 1.3839 |
| USD/JPY | 109.21
|
109.63 | 109.89 | 110.31
|
108.95 | 108.53 | 108.27
|
| USD/INR | 66.75 | 67.04 | 67.18 | 66.60 | 66.32 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.2210/1.2150/1.2090 | 1.2415/1.2475/1.2555 | SIDE | SIDE<1.2150 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3965/1.3710 | 1.4345 | UP | DN<1.3710 |
| USD/JPY | 104.50 | 108 | DN | SIDE>108 |
| USD/INR | 66.70/66.25 | 67.30 | UP | SIDE<65.50 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9575 | 0.9925 | UP | DN <0.9575 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 65.46. 50 day moving average is at 65.07. 200 day moving average is at 64.45. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 64.85 . Important support zone is at 66.25 and later at 65.90. Important resistance is at 67.40. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 66.38,S1:66.27, S2:66.05, R1:66.60, R2:66.71
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages, but below 20 and 50 day moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2415 and later at 1.2475. Major support is at 1.2150. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2415. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is sideways in daily chart. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading above 200 day major moving average. Important resistance is at 1.4375. Important support is at 1.3915 and later at 1.3715.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.56. Important support is at 104.56. Important resistance is at 108 and later at 110.40.
