11/10/2018
USDINR opened at 74.15 y’day and the pair traded in the 74.05-74.28 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.20, loss of 18 ps ps for USD as against prior close of 74.38.RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.13. Rupee gained marginally as Equity markets showed signs of recovery. Oct USD/INR closed at 74.39, loss of 19 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.58. Oct Euro/INR closed at 85.71, GBP/INR at 98.04 and Yen/INR at 65.77.
FII’S sold Rs 5395 Cr of Indian Equities in Oct till date . FII’S sold Rs 1591 Cr of Indian debt securities in Oct till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have sold Rupees 15017 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 50892 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.54% y’day. DOW declined 831 points (3.15%) Y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.16% and Hang seng climbed 0.06% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1560, Pound at 1.3228,Yen at 112.05.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1196 and WT1Crude at USD 71.90.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.22% and 3 m libor closed at 2.39%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 8.03%.
Economic news: Indian Equity markets climbed steeply on short covering. CPI and PPI data are awaited. UK GDP was flat in August, grew 0.0% mom, below expectation of 0.1% mom.
Data Highlights: – US PPI climbed 0.2% m/m.
-UK Industrial production climbed 0.2% m/m and manufacturing production declined -0.2% m/m.
Thursday’s calendar:- US Weekly jobless claims and CPI
| USD/INR | 74.28 | 74.05 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1560 | 1.1545 | 1.1480 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3228 | 1.3216 | 1.3137 |
| USD/JPY | 112.05 | 113.28 | 112.06 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1519 | 1.1558 | 1.1584 | 1.1623 | 1.1493 | 1.1454 | 1.1428 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3186 | 1.3235 | 1.3265 | 1.3314 | 1.3156 | 1.3107 | 1.3077 |
| USD/JPY | 112.48
|
112.90 | 113.70 | 114.12
|
111.68 | 111.26 | 110.46
|
| USD/INR | 74.17 | 74.30 | 74.40 | 74.06 | 73.94 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.13 | 1.1650/1.1820 | DOWN | UP>1.1830 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2925/1.2785 | 1.33 | SIDE | DN<1.2785 |
| USD/JPY | 113.20/111.85 | 114.70 | UP | DN<111.85 |
| USD/INR | 73.40/72.90 | UP | SIDE<72.90 | |
| USD/CHF | 0.9830/0.9730 | 1.0070 | UP | DN <0.9730 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 72.92. 50 day moving average is at 71.03. 200 day moving average is at 67.06. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30 . Important support zone is at 72.90/72.40. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Oct contract are:
PP: 74.36,S1:74.25, S2:74.11, R1:74.50, R2:74.61.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1820 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.13. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1820. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is sideways in daily chart. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.33 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below 200 day moving average. Important resistance is at 1.33 and later at 1.3560. Important support is at 1.2925 and later at 1.2785.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.70. Next important support is at 113.20/111.85. Important resistance is at 114.70
