10/10/2018
USDINR opened at 73.86 y’day and the pair traded in the 73.86-74.40 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.39, gain of 32 ps ps for USD as against prior close of 74.07.RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.10. Rupee declined tracking Crude rally. Oct USD/INR closed at 74.58, gain of 30 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.28. Oct Euro/INR closed at 85.46, GBP/INR at 97.34 and Yen/INR at 65.95.
FII’S sold Rs 5395 Cr of Indian Equities in Oct till date . FII’S sold Rs 1591 Cr of Indian debt securities in Oct till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have sold Rupees 15017 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 50892 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.45% y’day. DOW declined 56 points (0.21%) Y’day. Nikkei declined 1.32% and Hang seng declined 0.11% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1507, Pound at 1.3157,Yen at 113.02.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1192 and WT1Crude at USD 74.61.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.21% and 3 m libor closed at 2.39%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.97%.
Economic news: Euro declined as Italy stuck to its budget deficit target, in direct confrontation with EU. IMF downgraded German growth forecast to 1.9% from 2.5%.
Data Highlights: – No major data.
Wednesday’s calendar:- US PPI
-UK Industrial and manufacturing production.
| USD/INR | 74.40 | 73.86 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1507 | 1.1509 | 1.1432 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3157 | 1.3158 | 1.3034 |
| USD/JPY | 113.02 | 113.40 | 112.87 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1482 | 1.1532 | 1.1559 | 1.1609 | 1.1455 | 1.1405 | 1.1378 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3116 | 1.3198 | 1.3240 | 1.3322 | 1.3074 | 1.2992 | 1.2950 |
| USD/JPY | 113.10
|
113.33 | 113.63 | 113.86
|
112.80 | 112.57 | 112.27
|
| USD/INR | 74.21 | 74.57 | 74.75 | 74.02 | 73.67 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.13 | 1.1650/1.1820 | DOWN | UP>1.1830 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2925/1.2785 | 1.33 | SIDE | DN<1.2785 |
| USD/JPY | 113.20/111.85 | 114.70 | UP | DN<111.85 |
| USD/INR | 72.90 | UP | SIDE<72.90 | |
| USD/CHF | 0.9830/0.9730 | 1.0070 | UP | DN <0.9730 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 72.80. 50 day moving average is at 70.92. 200 day moving average is at 67.06. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30 . Important support zone is at 72.90/72.40. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Oct contract are:
PP: 74.41,S1:74.23, S2:73.90, R1:74.75, R2:74.92.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1820 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.13. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1820. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is sideways in daily chart. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.33 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below 200 day moving average. Important resistance is at 1.33 and later at 1.3560. Important support is at 1.2925 and later at 1.2785.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.70. Next important support is at 113.20/111.85. Important resistance is at 114.70.
