FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 82.75 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.73-82.79 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.78, gain of 2 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.76.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.75 on 12/03. Mar USD/INR closed at 82.79, gain of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.76. Mar Euro/INR closed at 90.55, GBP/INR at 105.90 and Yen/INR at 56.34. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.70% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 625 bn, as on March 1 st. Reserves climbed USD 6 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (12/03) |
|
USDINR |
82.75 |
|
EURINR |
90.50 |
|
GBPINR |
106.05 |
|
JPYINR |
56.14 |
In March, FPI’S bought Rs 9652 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 3532 Cr of debt . In last calendar year, FII’S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty closed flat (0.0%) y’day. US S&P climbed 57 points (1.12%) y’day. Nikkei was flat and Hang Seng climbed 3.05% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0926, Pound at 1.2795, Yen at 147.30.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2158 and WT1Crude at USD 78/Brent at USD 82.30..
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.15% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.01%.
Economic news: Indian CPI was unchanged at 5.1% in Feb, though Core CPI moderated to 3.3% from 3.6% in Jan. Food inflation remained sticky at 8.7% vs 8.3% in Jan.
IIP climbed 3.8% in Jan vs 4.2% in Dec. Mfrg climbed 3.2%, mining was up 5.9%, consumer durables climbed 10.9%. Capital goods sector climbed 4.1% and power generation climbed 5.6%.
US CPI was stronger than expected, climbing 0.4% y/y. Last 3 months Core CPI is higher at 4.2% y/y as compared to 3.8% annualized for 12 months. Fed is unlikely to be cheered by Feb CPI data.
Data highlights: – US CPI and Core CPI climbed 0.4% m/m. CPI is up 3.2% y/y.
-UK unemployment rate inched higher to 3.9%. Claimant count change declined to 16.8k.
Wednesday’s calendar : – EU industrial production
-UK industrial production and manufacturing production.
|
USD/INR |
|
82.79 |
82.73 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0926 |
1.0943 |
1.0902 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2795 |
1.2824 |
1.2746 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
147.30 |
148.15 |
146.62 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0924 |
1.0946 |
1.0965 |
1.0987 |
1.0905 |
1.0883 |
1.0864 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2788 |
1.2830 |
1.2866 |
1.2908 |
1.2752 |
1.2710 |
1.2674 |
|
USD/JPY |
147.46 |
148.30 |
148.99 |
149.83 |
146.77 |
145.93 |
145.24 |
|
USD/INR |
82.76 |
82.80 |
82.82 |
|
82.73 |
82.70 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0875/1.0830 |
1.0990/1.1040 |
UP |
DN<1.0830 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2710/1.2580 |
1.29/1.2975 |
UP |
DN<1.2580 |
|
USD/JPY |
146/144.35 |
149.20/151 |
SIDE |
DN<144.35 |
|
USD/INR |
82.60 |
82.95 |
DN |
SIDE>82.95 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8675 |
0.89 |
UP |
DN<0.8675 |
Technicals: Spot closed below major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.90. 50 day moving average is at 83.02.200 day moving average is at 82.88. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.60 and important resistance is at 82.95/83.12. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for March contract are:
PP: 82.78, S1:82.75, S2:82.71, R1:82.82, R2:82.85.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 82.85/82.95. Imports be hedged at 82.60 for 1 month.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0995/1.1040. Next major support is at 1.0875/1.0830. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important support at 1.07. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2517 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2517. Important support is at 1.2517. Important resistance is at 1.29/1.2995.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 50 day, but still above 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 150.90. Important resistance is at 149.20/150.90 and support is at 146/144.35.
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