FX MORNING UPDATE                                                                                      

USDINR opened at 66.43 Y’day and the pair traded in the 66.29-66.46 range. Spot USDINR closed at 66.38, loss of 9 ps for USD as against prior close of 66.47.RBI reference rate was fixed at 66.36. April USD/INR closed at 66.38, loss of 10 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 66.48. April Euro/INR closed at 81.12, GBP/INR at 92.60 and Yen/INR at 61.01.

Rupee weakness had a pause as foreign banks sold USD y’day.

FII’S have sold Rs 4181 Cr of Indian Equities in April till date . FII’S have sold 3586 Cr of Indian debt securities in April . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 10702 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold  Rupees 5487 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.28% y’day. DOW declined 424 points (1.74%) y’day.Nikkei climbed 0.86%  and Hang seng climbed 1.26% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.2230, Pound at 1.3986,Yen at 108.91.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1329 and WT1Crude at USD 67.72.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.98% and 3 m libor closed at 2.29%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.69%.        

Economic news:  USD consolidated its recent gains as investors await further pick up in US Yields. Yen declined to 109+ levels. ECB meeting is the focus of this week.

Data Highlights: – -US new home sales climbed to 694k, house price index climbed 0.6% m/m and consumer confidence climbed to 128.7.


-German Ifo survey dipped to 102.1.




Wednesday’s calendar: – No major data.


USD/INR   66.46 66.29
EUR/USD 1.2230 1.2245 1.2182
GBP/USD 1.3986 1.3997 1.3918
USD/JPY 108.91 109.06 108.79

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.2221 1.2260 1.2284 1.2323 1.2197 1.2158 1.2134
GBP/USD 1.3970 1.4022 1.4049 1.4101 1.3943 1.3891 1.3864
USD/JPY 108.85


109.15 109.50 109.80


108.50 108.20 107.85


USD/INR 66.37 66.46 66.54   66.28 66.20  


Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.2210/1.2150/1.2090 1.2415/1.2475/1.2555 SIDE SIDE<1.2150
GBP/USD 1.3965/1.3710 1.4345 UP DN<1.3710
USD/JPY 104.50 108 DN SIDE>108
USD/INR 66.10/65.90/65.70 66.70 UP SIDE<65.50
USD/CHF 0.9575 0.9925 UP  DN <0.9575




Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving         is at 65.37. 50 day moving average is at 65.01. 200 day moving average is at 64.45. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 64.85 . Important support zone is at 65.90 and later at 65.30. Important resistance is  at 66.70. Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:

PP: 66.38,S1:66.27, S2:66.05, R1:66.60, R2:66.71

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.


EURO/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages, but below 20 and 50 day moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2415 and later at 1.2475. Major support is at 1.2150. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2415. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.

GBP/USD: Trend is sideways in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading above 200 day major moving average. Important resistance is at 1.4375. Important support is at 1.3915 and later at 1.3715.      

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.56. Important support is at 104.56. Important resistance is  at 108 and later at 110.40.

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