USDINR opened at 82.82 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.64-82.84 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.67, loss of 13 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.80.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.72 on 24/05. May USD/INR closed at 82.70, loss of 13 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.83. May Euro/INR closed at 89.10, GBP/INR at 102.39 and Yen/INR at 59.85. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.95% p.a.  FX reserves climbed USD 3 bn last week as compared to prior week and stood at USD 599.5 bn as on May 12 th. This is the highest since June 2022.

In May till date, FII’S  have bought Rs 24476 Cr of Equities and have bought Rs 1340 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 62 points (0.34%) y’day. DOW declined 255 points (0.77%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.85% and Hang seng declined 1.82% y’day..

Euro is now at 1.0743, Pound at 1.2347, Yen at 139.62.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1958 and WT1Crude at USD 74/Brent at USD 78.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.75% and 3 m libor closed at 5.39%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.99%.

Economic news:  Rupee gained on inflows of USD 1 bn related to Adani group. RBI sold USD at around 82.85 in prior sessions.

FOMC minutes showed that members were divided on future monetary policy path. “Participants generally expressed uncertainty about how much more policy tightening may be appropriate,” according to minutes from the early May meeting of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).“Many participants focused on the need to retain optionality after this meeting.”

US Personal income, spending, Core PCE index  are key events for the week.

Data highlights: – -German Ifo survey dipped to 91.7.

-UK CPI climbed 8.7% y/y, RPI climbed 11.4% y/y and PPI(output) was flat m/m.

Thursday’s calendar : – US Weekly jobless claims and pending home sales

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above all major major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.17. 50 day moving average is at 82.20.200 day moving average is at 81.49. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.57/82.48/82.39 and important resistance is at 82.92. Spot closed below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:

PP: 82.74, S1:82.59, S2:82.49, R1:82.84, R2:82.99.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD Exports be hedged.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below 20, 50 but above 200 day major moving average. Major resistance is at 1.1075. Next major support is at 1.0750. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1075. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1095.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50,100 and 200 day moving averages . Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2679 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803. Important support is at 1.2390/1.2250. Important resistance is at 1.2675.

USD/YEN: The pair is above all major averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 133.50. Important resistance is at 142.25 and support is at 135.35/133.50.

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