FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 82.87 on Friday and the pair traded in the 82.81-82.89 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.85, loss of 6 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.91.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.87 on 01/03. Mar USD/INR closed at 82.94, loss of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.97. Mar Euro/INR closed at 89.81, GBP/INR at 104.82 and Yen/INR at 55.46. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.65% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 619 bn, as on Feb 23 rd.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (01/03) |
|
USDINR |
82.87 |
|
EURINR |
89.57 |
|
GBPINR |
104.65 |
|
JPYINR |
55.11 |
In Feb, FPI’S bought Rs 4000 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 19693 Cr of debt . In last calendar year, FII’S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 39 points (0.18%) on special session trading session on Saturday. US S&P climbed 40 points (0.80%) on Friday. Nikkei was up 1.92% and Hang Seng climbed 0.47% on Friday.
Euro is now at 1.0837, Pound at 1.2655, Yen at 150.10.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2045 and WT1Crude at USD 79.80/Brent at USD 83.45.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.18% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.06%.
Economic news: Indian PMI(mfrg) climbed to 56.9. The upturn in manufacturing output was the strongest seen for five months and led by the capital goods category.New export orders grew at the highest pace in 21 months, but employment levels changed little as firms felt existing staff strengths were enough to cope with the workload.
GST Collections climbed 12.5% to 1.68 lac Cr in Feb. Average collection in this financial year stands at Rs 1.67 lac Cr.
Eurozone CPI slowed from 2.8% yoy to 2.6% yoy in February, above expectation of 2.5% yoy. CPI core (ex-energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) slowed from 3.3% yoy to 3.1% yoy, above expectation of 2.9% yoy.
US, EU and UK PMI (mfrg) remained in contraction mode. US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.1 to 47.8 in February, below expectation of 49.5. Manufacturing sector continued to contract for the 16th month. ISM said: “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the February reading (47.8 percent) corresponds to a change of plus-1.5 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”
Data highlights: – US ISM(mfrg) remained in contraction mode at 47.8, construction spending declined -0.2% m/m.
-EU Core CPI (flash) climbed 3.1% y/y and PMI(mfrg-final) climbed to 46.1.
-UK PMI(mfrg-final) climbed to 47.5.
Monday’s calendar : -EU Sentix investor confidence
|
USD/INR |
|
82.89 |
82.81 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0837 |
1.0844 |
1.0797 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2655 |
1.2665 |
1.2599 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
150.10 |
150.73 |
149.96 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0826 |
1.0855 |
1.0873 |
|
1.0808 |
1.0779 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2639 |
1.2680 |
1.2705 |
|
1.2613 |
1.2573 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
150.26 |
150.56 |
151.03 |
|
149.79 |
149.49 |
|
|
USD/INR |
82.85 |
82.89 |
82.93 |
|
82.81 |
82.78 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.07 |
1.0890 |
SIDE |
UP>1.0890 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2515 |
1.2710/1.2830 |
SIDE |
UP>1.2710 |
|
USD/JPY |
148.80/146.85 |
151/152 |
UP |
SIDE<146.85 |
|
USD/INR |
82.80 |
82.96/83.12 |
SIDE |
UP>83.12 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8730/0.8620 |
0.8850 |
UP |
DN<0.8620 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 20 and 50 day average but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.95. 50 day moving average is at 83.07.200 day moving average is at 82.82. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 82.96/83.12. Spot closed at the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for March contract are:
PP: 82.93, S1:82.89, S2:82.86, R1:82.97, R2:83.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 83/83.05. Imports be hedged at 82.80 for 2 months.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0890. Next major support is at 1.07. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important support at 1.07. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.
GBP/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.25 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2829. Important support is at 1.25. Important resistance is at 1.2710/1.2830.
USD/YEN: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 150.90. Important resistance is at 150.90/152 and support is at 148.80/146.85.
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