USDINR opened at 81.66 on Thursday and the pair traded in the 81.65-81.82 range. Spot USDINR closed at 81.80, gain of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 81.75. FX market was closed on Friday.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 81.73 on 04/05. May USD/INR closed at 81.83, loss of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 81.88. May Euro/INR closed at 90.57, GBP/INR at 102.87 and Yen/INR at 61.07. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.20% p.a. FX reserves climbed USD 4 bn as compared to prior week and stood at USD 588 bn as on Apr 28 th.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (04/05)|
In May till date, FII’S have bought Rs 4381 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 2176 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 186 points (1.02%) on Friday. DOW climbed 546 points (1.65%) on Friday. Nikkei climbed 0.12% and Hang seng climbed 0.42% on Friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.1018, Pound at 1.2641, Yen at 134.83.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2025 and WT1Crude at USD 71/Brent at USD 75.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.43% and 3 m libor closed at 5.33%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.01%.
Economic news: US economy added 253 k jobs last month and unemployment rate declined to 3.4% and average hourly earnings climbed 0.5% m/m. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.4%.
US employment data helped USD to stem Euro surge above 1.1090.
EU retail sales contracted more than expected.
Data highlights: -German factory orders declined 10.7% m/m and retail sales declined 1.2% m/m.
-UK PMI(construction) was reported at 51.1.
Monday’s calendar : – EU sentix investor confidence and German industrial production.
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed below 20, 50,100 day averages but still above 200 day major moving average.20 day moving average is at 81.97. 50 day moving average is at 82.27.200 day moving average is at 81.49. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 81.62/81.45 and important resistance is at 82/82.24. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 81.82, S1:81.74, S2:81.65, R1:81.91, R2:81.99.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD Exports be hedged at 82+ levels.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50, 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1075. Next major support is at 1.0940/1.0840. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1075. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0515.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 50,100 and 200 day moving averages . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2345 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803. Important support is at 1.2510/1.2345. Important resistance is at 1.2670.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 200 day moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 129.65. Important resistance is at 135/138 and support is at 133.50/132/130.60.
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