USDINR opened at 81.70 Y’day and the pair traded in the 81.61-81.85 range. Spot USDINR closed at 81.84, gain of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 81.76. Rupee weakened after initial gains, due to month end demand.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 81.65 on 27/04. May USD/INR closed at 81.91, gain of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 81.90. May Euro/INR closed at 90.48, GBP/INR at 102.10 and Yen/INR at 61.66. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.30% p.a. FX reserves climbed USD 2 bn as compared to prior week and stood at USD 586 bn as on Apr 14 th.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (27/04)|
In April, FII’S have bought Rs 6276 Cr of Equities and have bought Rs 730 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 101 points (0.57%) y’day. DOW climbed 524 points (1.57%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.14% and Hang seng climbed 0.42% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1034, Pound at 1.2476, Yen at 134.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1995 and WT1Crude at USD 74.50/Brent at USD 78.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.52% and 3 m libor closed at 5.22%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.11%.
Economic news: US GDP in Q1 climbed 1.1% as against expectation of 2%. The increase in real GDP can be attributed to rises in consumer spending, exports, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment. US Corporate earnings were better than expected as Microsoft and Meta reported better than expected top and bottom lines.
Focus is on US Core PCE. If Core PCE slides, Fed could pause rate hikes after May.
Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims dipped to 230k, GDP (adv) climbed 1.1% q/q, pending home sales
Friday’s calendar : – US Personal income, spending and Core PCE index
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed below 20, 50,100 day averages but still above 200 day major moving average.20 day moving average is at 82.06. 50 day moving average is at 82.34.200 day moving average is at 81.47. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 81.62/81.45 and important resistance is at 82.02/82.24. Spot closed below the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 81.86, S1:81.75, S2:81.61, R1:82.01, R2:82.11.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD Exports be hedged at 82+ levels.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50, 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1075. Next major support is at 1.09/1.0750. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0515. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0515.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 50,100 and 200 day moving averages . Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2545 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803. Important support is at 1.2345/1.2175. Important resistance is at 1.2545.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 200 day moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 129.65. Important resistance is at 135/138 and support is at 132.75/132/130.60.
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