USDINR opened at 82.08 Y’day and the pair traded in the 81.89-82.10 range. Spot USDINR closed at 81.91, loss of 19 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.10.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.05 on 24/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 81.93, loss of 15 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.08. Apr Euro/INR closed at 90.13, GBP/INR at 102.04 and Yen/INR at 60.90. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.20% p.a.  FX reserves climbed USD 2 bn as compared to prior week and stood at USD 586 bn as on Apr 14 th.

In April, FII’S  have bought Rs 6276 Cr of Equities and have bought Rs 730 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 119 points (0.68%) y’day. DOW climbed 66 points (0.20%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.10% and Hang seng declined 0.58% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1060, Pound at 1.2500, Yen at 134.30.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2010 and WT1Crude at USD 79/Brent at USD 83.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.48% and 3 m libor closed at 5.22%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.12%.

Economic news: US Core PCE inflation data and GDP are focus events. US Fed meeting outcome will be known on May 3^rd night. Fed members are monitoring credit conditions. Banks seems to have tightened Credit due to likely economic slowdown, liquidity conditions and high uncertainty.

In its latest monthly report, Bundesbank revealed that German economy performed better than anticipated in the first quarter of 2023. n the coming months, Bundesbank expects inflation rate to continue falling somewhat, particularly due to decreasing energy prices and a potential gradual easing in prices of food, other goods, and services.

Data highlights: – No major data release.

Tuesday’s calendar : – US House price index, consumer confidence and New home sales.

Daily Support/Resistance table

 MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed below 20, 50,100 day averages but still above 200 day major moving average.20 day moving average is at 82.15. 50 day moving average is at 82.36.200 day moving average is at 81.41. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 81.76 and important resistance is at 82.24. Spot closed below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:

PP: 81.97, S1:81.83, S2:81.74, R1:82.06, R2:82.20.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD Exports be hedged at 82.30 levels.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50, 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1075. Next major support is at 1.09/1.0750. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0515. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0515.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50,100 and 200 day moving averages . Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2545 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803. Important support is at 1.2345/1.2175. Important resistance is at 1.2545.

USD/YEN: The pair is below   200 day moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 129.65. Important resistance is at 135/138 and support is at 132.75/132/130.60.

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