USDINR opened at 82.24 Y’day and the pair traded in the 82.12-82.24 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.16, loss of 7 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.23.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.16 on 20/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 82.17, loss of 10 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.27. Apr Euro/INR closed at 90.11, GBP/INR at 102.22 and Yen/INR at 61.13. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.15% p.a.  FX reserves climbed USD 6 bn as compared to prior week and stood at USD 584 bn as on Apr 7 th.

In April, FII’S  have bought Rs 4248 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 1081 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty closed flat y’day. DOW declined 110 points (0.33%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.11% and Hang seng climbed 0.07% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0959, Pound at 1.2428, Yen at 134.76.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2015 and WT1Crude at USD 77/Brent at USD 81.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.53% and 3 m libor closed at 5.22%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.23%.

Economic news: ECB minutes revealed that “a very large majority” of members agreed to raise key interest rates by 50 basis points. This decision was made “in line with the intention the Governing Council had communicated at its last monetary policy meeting.”

The minutes noted that “following the announced intended interest rate path was seen as important to instill confidence and avoid creating further uncertainty in financial markets.” Looking ahead, members concurred on the importance of a data-dependent approach for future policy rate decisions amid the “elevated level of uncertainty.” In this context, the minutes stated that “it was underlined that if the inflation outlook embedded in the March ECB staff projections were confirmed, the Governing Council would have further ground to cover in adjusting the monetary policy stance to ensure a timely return of inflation to target.”

Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims climbed to 245k, Phily Fed index declined steeply to -31.3 and existing home sales declined to 4.44 mn.

-EU Consumer confidence was reported at -18.

Friday’s calendar : – EU PMI(flash-mfrg) and PMI(services)

-UK retail sales and PMI(mfrg)

 Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed below 20, 50,100 day averages but still above 200 day major moving average.20 day moving average is at 82.24. 50 day moving average is at 82.38.200 day moving average is at 81.35. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 81.76 and important resistance is at 82.30/82.49. Spot closed below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:

PP: 82.20, S1:82.08, S2:82.01, R1:82.28, R2:82.39.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD Exports be hedged at 82.30 levels.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50, 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1075. Next major support is at 1.0974/1.0830. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0515. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0515.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50,100 and 200 day moving averages . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803. Important support is at 1.2345/1.2175. Important resistance is at 1.2545.

USD/YEN: The pair is below   200 day moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 129.65. Important resistance is at 134/137 and support is at 130.60/129.65. 

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