USDINR opened at 82.10 Y’day and the pair traded in the 82.07-82.25 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.23, gain of 19 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.04.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.12 on 19/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 82.27, gain of 20 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.07. Apr Euro/INR closed at 89.84, GBP/INR at 101.96 and Yen/INR at 61.10. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.15% p.a. FX reserves climbed USD 6 bn as compared to prior week and stood at USD 584 bn as on Apr 7 th.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (19/04)|
In April, FII’S have bought Rs 4248 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 1081 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 41 points (0.23%) y’day. DOW declined 79 points (0.23%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.18% and Hang seng declined 1.37% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0959, Pound at 1.2428, Yen at 134.76.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2005 and WT1Crude at USD 78/Brent at USD 82.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.60% and 3 m libor closed at 5.22%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.23%.
Economic news: UK CPI slowed from 10.4% yoy to 10.1% yoy in march, above expectation of 9.8% yoy. Core CPI (CPI excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) was unchanged at 6.2% yoy, above expectation of 6.0% yoy.
Since UK inflation is in double digits, BOE could hike rates by 25 bps again.
ECB Chief economist noted that incoming data is mixed. He said that while service sector is resilient, manufacturing is stagnant.
Fed’s beige book assessment released on Wednesday, showed that economic growth eased in recent weeks, while U.S. inflation continued to run relatively high, which could attract more monetary tightening.
Crude Oil declined on Global economic worries and further tightening by central banks.
Data highlights: – EU CPI was finalized at 6.9% y/y and Core CPI was reported at 5.7% y/y.
-UK PPI(output) climbed 0.1% m/m, CPI climbed 10.1% y/y , RPI climbed 13.5% y/y.
Thursday’s calendar : – US Weekly jobless claims, Phily Fed index and existing home sales
-EU Consumer confidence
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed below 20, 50,100 day averages but still above 200 day major moving average.20 day moving average is at 82.25. 50 day moving average is at 82.38.200 day moving average is at 81.35. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 81.76 and important resistance is at 82.30/82.49. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP: 82.21, S1:82.14, S2:82.02, R1:82.33, R2:82.40.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD Exports be hedged at 82.30 levels.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50, 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1075. Next major support is at 1.0974/1.0830. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0515. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0515.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 50,100 and 200 day moving averages . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803. Important support is at 1.2345/1.2175. Important resistance is at 1.2545.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 200 day moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 129.65.
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