USDINR opened at 81.89 Y’day and the pair traded in the 81.88-81.98 range. Spot USDINR closed at 81.97, gain of 12 ps for USD as against prior close of 81.85.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 81.94 on 17/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 82.03, gain of 13 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 81.90. Apr Euro/INR closed at 90.03, GBP/INR at 101.79 and Yen/INR at 61.31. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.28% p.a. FX reserves climbed USD 6 bn as compared to prior week and stood at USD 584 bn as on Apr 7 th.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (17/04) |
| USDINR | 81.94 |
| EURINR | 90.04 |
| GBPINR | 101.74 |
| JPYINR | 61.16 |
In April, FII’S have bought Rs 4248 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 1081 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 121 points (0.68%) y’day. DOW climbed 100 points (0.30%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.07% and Hang seng climbed 1.68% y’day.
Euro closed the week 1.0927, Pound at 1.2374, Yen at 134.41.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2009 and WT1Crude at USD 81/Brent at USD 85.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.59% and 3 m libor closed at 5.22%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.24%.
Economic news: ECB Governing Council member suggested that a smaller rate hike of 25 basis points in May is possible, although a 50 basis point increase should not be dismissed entirely.
Data highlights: – – No major data release.
Tuesday’s calendar : – US building permits and housing starts
-EU and German Zew surveys
-UK unemployment rate and claimant count
| USD/INR | 81.98 | 81.88 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.0927 | 1.1076 | 1.0972 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.2374 | 1.2547 | 1.2399 | |
| USD/JPY | 134.41 | 133.85 | 132.16 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0944 | 1.0979 | 1.1035 | 1.1070 | 1.0888 | 1.0853 | 1.0797 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2388 | 1.2423 | 1.2474 | 1.2509 | 1.2338 | 1.2302 | 1.2252 |
| USD/JPY | 134.25 | 134.79 | 135.11 | 135.65 | 133.93 | 133.39 | 133.07 |
| USD/INR | 81.94 | 82 | 82.04 | 81.90 | 81.84 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0831/1.0720 | 1.1075 | UP | SIDE<1.0720 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2345/1.2175 | 1.2545 | UP | DN<1.2175 |
| USD/JPY | 130.60/129.65 | 134/137 | DN | SIDE>134 |
| USD/INR | 81.77/81.62 | 82.15/82.30/82.49 | SIDE | UP>82.30 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8755 | 0.90/0.9120 | DN | UP>0.9485 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 20, 50,100 day averages but still above 200 day major moving average.20 day moving average is at 82.37. 50 day moving average is at 82.25.200 day moving average is at 81.35. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 81.62 and important resistance is at 82.15/82.30/82.49. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP: 82, S1:81.93, S2:81.83, R1:82.10, R2:82.17.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD Exports be hedged at 82.30 levels.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50, 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1075. Next major support is at 1.0974/1.0830. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0515. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0515.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 50,100 and 200 day moving averages . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803. Important support is at 1.2345/1.2175. Important resistance is at 1.2545.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 200 day moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 129.65. Important resistance is at 134/137 and support is at 130.60/129.65.
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