USDINR opened at 81.96 on Thursday and the pair traded in the 81.83-82 range. Spot USDINR closed at 81.85, loss of 24 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.09. FX market was closed on Friday.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 81.98 on 13/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 81.90, loss of 24 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.14. Apr Euro/INR closed at 90.20, GBP/INR at 102.44 and Yen/INR at 61.61. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.28% p.a.  FX reserves climbed USD 6 bn as compared to prior week and stood at USD 584 bn as on Apr 7 th.

In April, FII’S  have bought Rs 4248 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 1081 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 15 points (0.09%) on Thursday. DOW declined 38 points (0.11%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.57% and Hang seng declined 0.86% on Friday.

Euro closed the week 1.0999, Pound at 1.2492, Yen at 133.13.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2017 and WT1Crude at USD 83/Brent at USD 86.60.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.51% and 3 m libor closed at 5.22%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.22%.

Economic news: Indian exports declined 13.9% y/y in March to USD 38.38 bn. March imports stood at 58.11 bn. Trade deficit climbed to 3 months high of USD 19.73 bn.

Indian exports climbed 6% to USD 447 bn in FY22-23. Imports climbed 16.5% to USD 714 bn. Trade deficit stood at USD 267 bn.

CPI eased to 5.66% in March. Food inflation fell to 4.79% from 5.95% in Feb. IIP climbed 5.6% in Feb. Mfrg grew by 5.3%.

FOMC minutes noted that labor market is tight and inflation is still above comfort level. After discussion on banking issues, FOMC decided to hike rates by 25 bps in its last meeting. Fed member said that inflation is still high and monetary policy outlook has not changed as compared to last meeting. He also said that rates will remain high for a longer period of time than anticipated by markets.

Data highlights: – – US Weekly jobless claims climbed to 239k, PPI declined -0.5% m/m.

-US retail sales declined 1% m/m. Industrial production climbed 0.4% m/m.

-UK GDP was flat m/m, Industrial and manufacturing production declined -0.2% m/m and 0% respectively.

Monday’s calendar : – No major data release.

 Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed below 20, 50,100 day averages but still above 200 day major moving average.20 day moving average is at 82.35. 50 day moving average is at 82.28.200 day moving average is at 81.35. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 81.62 and important resistance is at 82.15/82.30/82.49. Spot closed below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:

PP: 81.97, S1:81.75, S2:81.62, R1:82.11, R2:82.32.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD Exports be hedged at 82.30 levels.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50, 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1075. Next major support is at 1.0974/1.0830. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0515. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0515.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50,100 and 200 day moving averages . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803. Important support is at 1.2345/1.2175. Important resistance is at 1.2545.

USD/YEN: The pair is below   200 day moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 129.65. Important resistance is at 134/137 and support is at 130.60/129.65. 

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