USDINR opened at 82.07 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.01-82.11 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.09, loss of 3 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.12.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.07 on 11/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 82.14, loss of 2 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.16. Apr Euro/INR closed at 89.76, GBP/INR at 101.91 and Yen/INR at 61.58. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.22% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 578 bn as on March 31 st. FX reserves declined by USD 28 bn as compared to March end 2022.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (11/04)|
In April, FII’S have bought Rs 1380 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 1714 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 90 points (0.51%) y’day. DOW declined 38 points (0.11%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.57% and Hang seng declined 0.86% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0999, Pound at 1.2492, Yen at 133.13.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2031 and WT1Crude at USD 83/Brent at USD 87.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.40% and 3 m libor closed at 5.22%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.22%.
Economic news: Dollar is clearly under pressure after US CPI release, breaking out to the downside against the Euro. US CPI rose 0.1% mom in March, below expectation of 0.3% mom. CPI core (all items less food and energy) rose 0.4% mom, matched expectations. Over the last 12 months, CPI slowed from 6.0% yoy to 5.0% yoy, below expectation of 5.2% yoy, marked the lowest level since June 2021. CPI core (all items less food and energy) accelerated from 5.5% yoy to 5.6% yoy, matched expectations.
Despite inflation trending down, Fed is on course to hike rates by 25 bps in its May meeting. However, Fed may pause after this last rate hike as inflation is on durable course to hit Fed’s target.
Indian CPI data is also due for release this week.
Data highlights: – – US CPI climbed 5% y/y and 0.1% m/m.
Wednesday’s calendar : – US Weekly jobless claims, PPI
-UK GDP, Industrial and manufacturing production.
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed below 20, 50 day averages but still above 100,200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.35. 50 day moving average is at 82.28.200 day moving average is at 81.25. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 81.62 and important resistance is at 82.30/82.49. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP: 82.11, S1:82.07, S2:82.02, R1:82.17, R2:82.20.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD Exports be hedged between 82.30 levels.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50, 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0930. Next major support is at 1.0790/1.0710. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0515. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1035.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 50,100 and 200 day moving averages . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2450. Important support is at 1.2275/1.2190. Important resistance is at 1.2525.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 129.65. Important resistance is at 133.75 and support is at 130.60/129.65.
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