27/09/2018
USDINR opened at 72.71 y’day and the pair traded in the 72.53-72.74 range. Spot USDINR closed at 72.61, loss of 8 ps ps for USD as against prior close of 72.69.RBI reference rate was fixed at 72.71.Oct USD/INR closed at 72.91, loss of 9 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73. Oct Euro/INR closed at 85.82, GBP/INR at 95.96 and Yen/INR at 64.70.
FII’S have sold Rs 1745 Cr of Indian Equities in Sept till 18/9 . FII’S have sold Rs 6140 Cr of Indian debt securities in Sept till 18/9 . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have sold Rupees 1745 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 44914 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.12% Y’day. DOW declined 107 points (0.40%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.39% and Hang seng climbed 1.15% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1746, Pound at 1.3147,Yen at 112.81.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1201 and WT1Crude at USD 72.47.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.10% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 8.07%.
Economic news: Fed increased rates by 25 bps to 2.25% and indicated one more rate hike in Dec, 3 rate hikes in 2019 and one rate hike in 2020. Fed modified its statement to remove the phrase of “accomodative monetary stance”. Fed expects GDP growth to be 3.1% (up from 2.8%) for 2018 and 2.5% for next year. Unemployment rate is expected to be 3.7% in 2018. PCE index (inflation measure) is expected to be around 2.1% in 2018 and around 2% in 2019.US yields declined marginally and Equity markets fell nominally. USD was almost unchanged against Euro.
Indian Govt raised customs duty on 19 items to curb non essential imports and to stem Rupee fall.
Data Highlights: – -New home sales
Thursday’s calendar:- US durables order, GDP(final)
-US Pending home sales, weekly jobless claims
| USD/INR | 72.74 | 72.53 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1746 | 1.1797 | 1.1727 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3147 | 1.3217 | 1.3138 |
| USD/JPY | 112.81 | 113.13 | 112.63 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1757 | 1.1787 | 1.1827 | 1.1857 | 1.1717 | 1.1687 | 1.1647 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3175 | 1.3212 | 1.3254 | 1.3291 | 1.3133 | 1.3096 | 1.3054 |
| USD/JPY | 112.82
|
113.01 | 113.32 | 113.51
|
112.51 | 112.32 | 112.01
|
| USD/INR | 72.62 | 72.72 | 72.83 | 72.50 | 72.41 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1525/1.13 | 1.1790/1.1960 | SIDE | DN<1.1525 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3045/1.2990 | 1.3365 | SIDE | DN<1.2990 |
| USD/JPY | 109.70 | 113.10 | UP | DN<109.70 |
| USD/INR | 71.50/70.70 | 72.95 | UP | SIDE<71.50 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9535/0.9435 | 0.9785 | DN | UP >0.9785 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 71.89. 50 day moving average is at 70.17. 200 day moving average is at 66.68. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30 . Important support zone is at 71.50/70.70 and later at 70.30. Important resistance is at 72.95. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Oct contract are:
PP: 72.93,S1:72.80, S2:72.69, R1:73.04, R2:73.17.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 200 day major moving average, but above 50 day moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.1790 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1525 and later at 1.13. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1525. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is sideways in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2662 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below 200 day moving average. Important resistance is at 1.3364 and later at 1.3560. Important support is at 1.3045 and later at 1.2990.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.70. Next important support is at 109.70. Important resistance is at 113.10.
