USDINR opened at 81.94 on Thursday and the pair traded in the 81.83-82.06 range. Spot USDINR closed at 81.90, loss of 12 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.02. Market was closed on Friday.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 81.97 on 07/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 81.98, loss of 14 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.12. Apr Euro/INR closed at 89.45, GBP/INR at 102.22 and Yen/INR at 62.54. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.50% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 578 bn as on March 31 st. FX reserves declined by USD 28 bn as compared to March end 2022.

In April, FII’S  have bought Rs 1380 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 1714 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 159 points (0.91%) on Thursday. DOW closed flat on Friday. Nikkei climbed 0.17% and Hang seng climbed 0.28% on Friday.

Euro closed the week at 1.0904, Pound at 1.2421, Yen at 132.20.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2023 and WT1Crude at USD 80.50/Brent at USD 85.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.41% and 3 m libor closed at 5.22%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.22%.

Economic news: Indian GST Collections rose 13% y/y to Rs 1.6 lac Cr.Gross GST Collections was Rs 18.10 lac Cr last year with average monthly collection at 1.51 lac Cr.

US non-farm payroll employment rose 236k in March, above expectation of 228k. That’s compared to average monthly gain of 334k over the prior 6 months. Unemployment rate dropped from 3.6% to 3.5%, below expectation of 3.6%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% mom, matched expectations. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings rose 4.2% yoy. 

Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims climbed to 228k.

-German Industrial production climbed 2% m/m.

-UK PMI(construction) declined to 50.7.

Monday’s calendar : – No major data release.

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed below 20, 50 day averages but still above 100,200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.31. 50 day moving average is at 82.30.200 day moving average is at 81.31. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 81.62 and important resistance is at 82.30/82.49. Spot closed below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:

PP: 82.01, S1:81.87, S2:81.76, R1:82.12, R2:82.26.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD Exports be hedged between 82.30 levels.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50, 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0930. Next major support is at 1.0790/1.0710. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0515. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1035.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50,100 and 200 day moving averages . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2450. Important support is at 1.2275/1.2190. Important resistance is at 1.2525.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 129.65. Important resistance is at 133.75 and support is at 130.60/129.65.

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