FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened gap down at 82.08 y’day and the pair traded in the 81,92-82.20 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.02, loss of 31 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.33.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.18 on 05/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 82.12, loss of 30 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.42. Apr Euro/INR closed at 89.82, GBP/INR at 102.34 and Yen/INR at 62.63. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.40% p.a.  FX reserves rose by USD 5.9 bn to USD 578.78 bn as on March 24 th. FX reserves declined by USD 28 bn as compared to March end 2022.

PAIRSRBI REF RATE (05/04)
USDINR82.18
EURINR90.01
GBPINR102.60
JPYINR62.49

In March, FII’S  have bought Rs 11742 Cr of Equities and have bought Rs 1417 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 159 points (0.91%) y’day. DOW climbed 80 points (0.24%) y’day. Nikkei declined 1.68% and Hang seng declined 0.66% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0890, Pound at 1.2443, Yen at 131.24.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2027 and WT1Crude at USD 79.70/Brent at USD 84.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.29% and 3 m libor closed at 5.22%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.27%.

Economic news: Indian PMI(mfrg) hit 3 month high of 56.5 in March. The new orders sub-index, which tracks overall demand, rose last month and foreign demand expanded at a quicker rate from February. Output grew at the strongest pace since December. PMI(services) was reported at 57.8, down from Feb reading of 59.4.

RBI MPC meeting outcome is awaited. With inflation still high, RBI may risk another 25 bps hike.

US ADP private sector employment increased by 145k jobs in March, well below expectation of 200k.This signaled that the economy is weakening.

Data highlights: – US ISM(services) declined to 51.2 and ADP employment report showed that pnly 145 k jobs were added by US private sector in March.

-German factory orders climbed 4.8% y/y, PMI(services) was finalized at 55.

-UK PMI(services) climbed to 52.9.

Thursday’s calendar : – US Weekly jobless claims

-German Industrial production

-UK PMI(construction)

USD/INR  82.2081.92
EUR/USD1.08901.09701.0891
GBP/USD1.24431.25141.2434
USD/JPY131.24131.85130.65

 Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency PairsPivotR1R2R3S1S2S3
EURO/USD1.09221.09531.10011.10321.08741.08431.0795
GBP/USD1.24701.25061.25511.25871.24261.23891.2345
USD/JPY131.14131.63132.34132.83130.43129.94129.24
USD/INR82.0482.1782.32 81.8881.76 

 MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency PairSupportsResistancesTrendRemarks
EURO/USD1.07101.0931UPDN>1.0710
GBP/USD1.2190/1.18031.2450UPDN<1.2190
USD/JPY131.80/129.65133.50/135DNSIDE>133.50
USD/INR81.6282.30/82.49SIDEUP>82.49
USD/CHF0.90600.9345/0.9440DNUP>0.9345

Technicals: Spot closed below 20, 50 day averages but still above 100,200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.30. 50 day moving average is at 82.30.200 day moving average is at 81.21. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 81.62 and important resistance is at 82.30/82.49. Spot closed below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:

PP: 82.15, S1:81.98, S2:81.84, R1:82.29, R2:82.46.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD Exports be hedged between 82.70-82.85 levels.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50, 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0930. Next major support is at 1.0710/1.0515. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0515. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1035.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50,100 and 200 day moving averages . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2450. Important support is at 1.2190/1.1803. Important resistance is at 1.2450.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 129.65. Important resistance is at 137.90 and support is at 129.65/127.20.

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