USDINR opened gap up at 82.47 on Monday and the pair traded in the 82.32-82.48 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.33, gain of 15 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.18. Market was closed y’day.Rupee declined 8.45% in fiscal year 2022-23. In March 2022, it closed at 75.78.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.38 on 03/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 82.42, loss of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.45. Apr Euro/INR closed at 89.59, GBP/INR at 101.89 and Yen/INR at 62.16. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.35% p.a.  FX reserves rose by USD 5.9 bn to USD 578.78 bn as on March 24 th. FX reserves declined by USD 28 bn as compared to March end 2022.

In March, FII’S  have bought Rs 11742 Cr of Equities and have bought Rs 1417 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 38 points (0.22%) on Monday. DOW declined 198 points (0.58%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.35% and Hang seng declined 0.66% y’day.

Euro closed the week at 1.0839, Pound at 1.2333, Yen at 132.79.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2038 and WT1Crude at USD 81/Brent at USD 85.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.35% and 3 m libor closed at 5.14%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.31%.

Economic news: Euro climbed as EU survey revealed moderation in inflation and uptick in growth. OPEC cut Oil production by 1.6 mn barrels per day. This surprise decision triggered 5% rally in Brent crude. Weak manufacturing data from US, EU and Japan implied slow down in major economies. Higher Oil prices also fueled worries over inflation and monetary policy path going forward.

RBI MPC meeting outcome will be known in coming week. Markets are currently split between a 25 basis point hike and none from the RBI next week. With inflation still high, RBI may risk another 25 bps hike.

Data highlights: – US ISM(mfrg) declined to 46.3 and construction spending declined -0.1% m/m.

-US Factory orders declined -0.7% m/m.

-EU PMI(mfrg-final) climbed marginally to 47.3 and UK PMI(mfrg) dipped to 47.9. EU PPI moderated to -0.5% m/m.

Wednesday’s calendar : – US ISM(services) and ADP employment report

-German factory orders, PMI(services)

-UK PMI(services)

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed below 20, 50 day averages but still above 100,200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.37. 50 day moving average is at 82.33.200 day moving average is at 81.17. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.08 and important resistance is at 82.49/82.70/82.80. Spot closed below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:

PP: 82.46, S1:82.33, S2:82.25, R1:82.54, R2:82.67.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD Exports be hedged between 82.70-82.85 levels.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50, 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0930. Next major support is at 1.0710/1.0515. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0515. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1035.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50,100 and 200 day moving averages . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2450. Important support is at 1.2190/1.1803. Important resistance is at 1.2450.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 129.65. Important resistance is at 137.90 and support is at 129.65/127.20.

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