USDINR opened at 82.22 on Friday and the pair traded in the 82.07-82.24 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.18, loss of 15 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.33. Rupee declined 8.45% in fiscal year 2022-23. In March 2022, it closed at 75.78.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.21 on 31/03. Apr USD/INR closed at 82.45, gain of 12 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.33. Apr Euro/INR closed at 89.60, GBP/INR at 101.77 and Yen/INR at 62.75. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.35% p.a.  FX reserves rose by USD 5.9 bn to USD 578.78 bn as on March 24 th. FX reserves declined by USD 28 bn as compared to March end 2022.


In March, FII’S  have bought Rs 11742 Cr of Equities and have bought Rs 1417 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 279 points (1.63%) on Friday. DOW climbed 415 points (1.26%) on Friday. Nikkei climbed 0.93% and Hang seng climbed 0.45% on Friday.

Euro closed the week at 1.0839, Pound at 1.2333, Yen at 132.79.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1986 and WT1Crude at USD 75.70/Brent at USD 79.95.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.47% and 3 m libor closed at 5.14%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.31%.

Economic news: It was a quiet end to a turbulent quarter. Indian and US Equities rose. US S&P climbed 2.5% and US Yields stabilized with 10 year yield at 3.47% and 2 year at 4.03%. Euro’s rally fizzled at around 1.0930. Banking stress, hawkish comments by Fed members and relatively strong economic data were the highlights of last quarter. US Core PCE data showed signs of deceleration. FOMC voting members noted the interest rate path will depend on incoming data and highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the effects of regional bank stress on credit availability.

US ISM and employment data are key events for the week.

RBI MPC meeting outcome will be known in coming week. Markets are currently split between a 25 basis point hike and none from the RBI next week. With inflation still high, RBI may risk another 25 bps hike.

India’s current account deficit (CAD) narrowed sequentially to $18.2 billion in the quarter ended December 2022, or 2.2 per cent of gross domestic product, from $30.9 billion in Q2FY23 (3.7 per cent of GDP). It was $22.2 billion or 2.7 per cent of GDP in the year-ago period. Behind the lower CAD in Q3FY23 was the narrowing of the merchandise trade deficit to $72.7 billion from $78.3 billion in Q2FY23, coupled with robust services and private transfer receipts, said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). For April-December 2022 (M9FY23), the country’s CAD expanded to 2.7 per cent of GDP, against 1.1 per cent of GDP M9FY22, due to a sharp increase in the merchandise trade deficit. In BOP, there was an accretion of USD 11.1 bn in Q3. However, for 9 months (Apr-Dec), there was a depletion of USD 14.7 bn as against an accretion of USD 63.5 bn during the same period last year. Private transfer receipts, mainly representing remittances from Indians employed overseas, amounted to $30.8 billion, an increase of 31.7 per cent per cent YoY.

Data highlights: – US Personal income climbed 0.3% m/m, spending climbed 0.2% m/m, Core PCE data climbed 0.3% m/m.

-EU CPI(flash) climbed 6.9% y/y and German retail sales declined -1.3% m/m.

Monday’s calendar : – US ISM(mfrg) and construction spending

-EU PMI(mfrg-final)

USD/INR  82.2482.07

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency PairsPivotR1R2R3S1S2S3
EURO/USD1.08671.08981.0958 1.08071.0776 
GBP/USD1.23601.23961.2459 1.22961.2261 
USD/JPY132.99133.40134.02 132.37131.96 
USD/INR82.1682.2582.33 82.0881.99 


Currency PairSupportsResistancesTrendRemarks

Technicals: Spot closed below 20, 50 day averages but still above 100,200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.37. 50 day moving average is at 82.33.200 day moving average is at 81.17. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.08 and important resistance is at 82.49/82.70/82.80. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:

PP: 82.42, S1:82.35, S2:82.26, R1:82.51, R2:82.58.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD Exports be hedged between 82.70-82.85 levels.


EURO/USD: The pair is above 50, 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0930. Next major support is at 1.0710/1.0515. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0515. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1035.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50,100 and 200 day moving averages . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2450. Important support is at 1.2190/1.1803. Important resistance is at 1.2450.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 129.65. Important resistance is at 137.90 and support is at 129.65/127.20.

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