USDINR opened at 82.25 on Tuesday and the pair traded in the 82.22-82.37 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.33, gain of 14 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.19. Markets were closed y’day.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.36 on 29/03. Apr USD/INR closed at 82.45, gain of 12 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.33. Apr Euro/INR closed at 89.60, GBP/INR at 101.77 and Yen/INR at 62.75. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.30% p.a. FX reserves rose by USD 12.8 bn to USD 572.8 bn as on March 17 th. Foreign Currency assets contributed USD 10.49 bn in the overall rise of USD 12.8 bn. Gold reserves rose by USD 2.19 bn.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (29/03) |
| USDINR | 82.36 |
| EURINR | 89.17 |
| GBPINR | 101.43 |
| JPYINR | 62.45 |
In March, FII’S have bought Rs 11875 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 293 Cr of debt . In last Calendar Year, FII’S sold close to Rs 1.06 lac Cr worth of Equities.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 129 points (0.76%) on Tuesday. DOW climbed 141 points (0.43%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.36% and Hang seng climbed 0.58% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0919, Pound at 1.2403, Yen at 133.12.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1998 and WT1Crude at USD 74.50/Brent at USD 78.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.56% and 3 m libor closed at 5.14%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.33%.
Economic news: US GDP growth was finalized at 2.6% q/q. Focus is on US Personal income, spending and Core PCE data. Euro climbed higher on expectation of higher CPI data. Hawkish rhetoric from ECB is also supporting Euro.
Data highlights: – US Pending home sales climbed 0.8% m/m and weekly jobless claims was reported at 198k.
Friday’s calendar : – US Personal income, spending, Core PCE data
-EU CPI(flash) and German retail sales
| USD/INR | 82.37 | 82.22 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.0919 | 1.0927 | 1.0824 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.2403 | 1.2393 | 1.2293 | |
| USD/JPY | 133.12 | 133.26 | 132.21 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0885 | 1.0946 | 1.0988 | 1.1049 | 1.0843 | 1.0782 | 1.0740 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2358 | 1.2423 | 1.2458 | 1.2523 | 1.2323 | 1.2258 | 1.2223 |
| USD/JPY | 132.89 | 133.57 | 133.94 | 134.62 | 132.52 | 131.84 | 131.46 |
| USD/INR | 82.30 | 82.39 | 82.45 | 82.23 | 82.15 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0665/1.0610/1.0515 | 1.0931 | SIDE | UP<1.0931 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2145/1.21/1.1803 | 1.2345/1.2450 | UP | DN<1.18 |
| USD/JPY | 129.80/127.20 | 133/135 | DN | SIDE>133 |
| USD/INR | 82.08/81.90 | 82.49/82.70/82.80 | SIDE | UP>82.49 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9060 | 0.9345/0.9440 | DN | UP>0.9440 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 20, 50 day averages but still above 100,200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.37. 50 day moving average is at 82.33.200 day moving average is at 81.07. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.08 and important resistance is at 82.49/82.70/82.80. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP: 82.42, S1:82.35, S2:82.26, R1:82.51, R2:82.58.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD Exports be hedged between 82.70-82.85 levels.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50, 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0930. Next major support is at 1.0515. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0515. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1035.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 50,100 and 200 day moving averages . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2450. Important support is at 1.21/1.1803. Important resistance is at 1.2345/1.2450.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 137.90. Important resistance is at 137.90 and support is at 129.80/127.20.
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