USDINR opened at 82.38 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.27-82.42 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.38, loss of 10 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.48.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.35 on 27/03. Mar USD/INR closed at 82.36, loss of 6 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.42. Mar Euro/INR closed at 88.70, GBP/INR at 101.01 and Yen/INR at 62.65. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.40% p.a. FX reserves rose by USD 12.8 bn to USD 572.8 bn as on March 17 th. Foreign Currency assets contributed USD 10.49 bn in the overall rise of USD 12.8 bn. Gold reserves rose by USD 2.19 bn.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (27/03)|
In March, FII’S have bought Rs 11875 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 293 Cr of debt . In last Calendar Year, FII’S sold close to Rs 1.06 lac Cr worth of Equities.Benchmark Nifty climbed 40 points (0.24%) y’day.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.46% and 3 m libor closed at 5.10%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.31%.
Economic news: Bundesbank President emphasized the growing importance of determining future monetary policy steps on a meeting-to-meeting basis, taking into account economic and financial developments.Meanwhile, he assured that the central bank will “continue to move forward resolutely on the path of monetary normalization until inflation is contained and price stability is restored.”
Focus is on US Core PCE inflation and EU inflation data. Indian Current account deficit is set for release on Friday.
Data highlights: – German Ifo survey climbed to 93.3.
Tuesday’s calendar : – US House price index and consumer confidence
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 20, 50 and 100 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.42. 50 day moving average is at 82.23.200 day moving average is at 81.07. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.08 and important resistance is at 82.70/82.80. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for March contract are:
PP: 82.35, S1:82.27, S2:82.19, R1:82.43, R2:82.51.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD Exports be hedged between 82.70-82.85 levels.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50, 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0930. Next major support is at 1.0515. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0515. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1035.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 50,100 and 200 day moving averages . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2450. Important support is at 1.21/1.1803. Important resistance is at 1.2345/1.2450.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 137.90. Important resistance is at 137.90 and support is at 129.80/127.20.
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