USDINR opened at 82.30 on Friday and the pair traded in the 82.20-82.49 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.48, gain of 22 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.26.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.24 on 24/03. Mar USD/INR closed at 82.42, gain of 17 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.25. Mar Euro/INR closed at 88.53, GBP/INR at 100.65 and Yen/INR at 63.34. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.40% p.a.  FX reserves rose by USD 12.8 bn to USD 572.8 bn as on March 17 th. Foreign Currency assets contributed USD 10.49 bn in the overall rise of USD 12.8 bn. Gold reserves rose by USD 2.19 bn.

In March, FII’S  have bought Rs 11875 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 293 Cr of debt . In last Calendar Year, FII’S sold close to Rs 1.06 lac Cr worth of Equities.

Benchmark Nifty declined 131 points (0.77%) on Friday. DOW climbed 132 points (0.41%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 0.13% and Hang Seng  declined 0.67% on Friday.

Euro closed the week at 1.0760, Pound at 1.2231, Yen at 130.70.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1981 and WT1Crude at USD 69/Brent at USD 75.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.37% and 3 m libor closed at 5.10%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.32%.

Economic news: Markets were mired in confusion hit with barrage of banking crisis news. After SVB, First Republic bank, it was the turn of Credit Suisse. CS was taken over by UBS. There is pressure on Deutsche bank. Fed and BOE increased rates and their communication was left for interpretations. As uncertainties persisted, rate fluctuations between Dollar and European majors were on both sides. Yen emerged as a winner.

In Equity markets, Nasdaq was resilient as markets are confident of an early end to Fed rate increase. US 10-year yield dived to as low as 3.295 on Friday on developments around Deutsche Bank.

Data highlights: – US durables order declined -1% m/m.

-EU PMI(mfrg-flash) declined to 47.1 and PMI(services-flash) climbed to 55.6.

-UK PMI(mfrg-flash) declined to 48, PMI(services-flash) declined to 52.8 and retail sales climbed 1.2% m/m.

Monday’s calendar : – German Ifo survey

 Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 20, 50 and 100 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.43. 50 day moving average is at 82.20.200 day moving average is at 81.07. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.08 and important resistance is at 82.70/82.80. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for March contract are:

PP: 82.38, S1:82.25, S2:82.08, R1:82.55, R2:82.68.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD Exports be hedged between 82.70-82.85 levels.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50, 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0930. Next major support is at 1.0515. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0515. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1035.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50,100 and 200 day moving averages . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2450. Important support is at 1.21/1.1803. Important resistance is at 1.2345/1.2450.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 137.90. Important resistance is at 137.90 and support is at 129.80/127.20.

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