USDINR opened at 82.37 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.08-82.40 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.26, loss of 40 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.66.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.16 on 23/03. Mar USD/INR closed at 82.25, loss of 43 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.67. Mar Euro/INR closed at 89.04, GBP/INR at 100.96 and Yen/INR at 63.35. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.40% p.a. FX reserves declined by USD 2.39 bn to USD 560 bn as on March 10 th.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (23/03) |
| USDINR | 82.16 |
| EURINR | 89.62 |
| GBPINR | 101.27 |
| JPYINR | 62.87 |
In March, FII’S have bought Rs 16137 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 2531 Cr of debt . In last Calendar Year, FII’S sold close to Rs 1.06 lac Cr worth of Equities.
Benchmark Nifty declined 75 points (0.44%) y’day. DOW climbed 75 points (0.23%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.17% and Hang Seng climbed 2.34% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0827, Pound at 1.2278, Yen at 130.41.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1994 and WT1Crude at USD 70/Brent at USD 75.75.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.39% and 3 m libor closed at 4.99%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.34%.
Economic news: BoE raised its Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% as expected, with a 7-2 vote by the Monetary Policy Committee. BOE stated that “if there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required.” Simultaneously, it also means the door is open for a pause in the rate hike cycle too.
Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims dipped to 191k, new home sales declined to 640k.
-EU Consumer confidence was reported at -19.
Friday’s calendar : – US durables order
-EU PMI(mfrg-flash) and PMI(services-flash)
-UK PMI(mfrg-flash), PMI(services-flash) and retail sales
| USD/INR | 82.40 | 82.08 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.0827 | 1.0931 | 1.0824 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.2278 | 1.2344 | 1.2261 | |
| USD/JPY | 130.41 | 131.68 | 130.32 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0861 | 1.0898 | 1.0968 | 1.1005 | 1.0791 | 1.0754 | 1.0685 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2297 | 1.2333 | 1.2381 | 1.2417 | 1.2250 | 1.2213 | 1.2166 |
| USD/JPY | 130.94 | 131.56 | 132.29 | 132.91 | 130.20 | 129.59 | 128.85 |
| USD/INR | 82.24 | 82.41 | 82.57 | 82.08 | 81.91 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0515 | 1.0931 | UP | SIDE<1.08 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2205/1.2145 | 1.2395/1.2450 | UP | DN<1.18 |
| USD/JPY | 129.80/127.20 | 133/135 | DN | SIDE>133 |
| USD/INR | 82.08/81.90 | 82.30/82.43 | SIDE | UP>82.43 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9060 | 0.9440 | DN | UP>0.9440 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 20, 50 and 100 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.45. 50 day moving average is at 82.21.200 day moving average is at 81. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.08 and important resistance is at 82.43/82.82. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for March contract are:
PP: 82.65, S1:82.57, S2:82.48, R1:82.74, R2:82.82.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD Exports be hedged. Between 82.70-82.85 levels.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages, but below 50 moving average. Major resistance is at 1.0750. Next major support is at 1.0515. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0515. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1035.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 50,100 and 200 day moving averages . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2450. Important support is at 1.1920/1.1803. Important resistance is at 1.2205/1.2450.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 137.90. Important resistance is at 137.90 and support is at 129.80/127.20.
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