FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 82.86 on Friday and the pair traded in the 82.84-82.94 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.93, gain of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.85.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.89 on 23/02. Feb USD/INR closed at 82.93, gain of 8 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.85. Feb Euro/INR closed at 89.82, GBP/INR at 105.13 and Yen/INR at 55.09. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.72% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 616 bn, as on Feb 16 th.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (23/02) |
|
USDINR |
82.89 |
|
EURINR |
89.71 |
|
GBPINR |
104.95 |
|
JPYINR |
55.03 |
In Feb, FPI’S have sold Rs 1975 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 15500 Cr of debt . In last calendar year, FII’S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty closed flat (0%) on Friday. US S&P closed flat (0%) on Friday. Nikkei climbed 2.19% and Hang Seng declined 0.10% on Friday.
Euro is now at 1.0821, Pound at 1.2671, Yen at 150.52.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2035 and WT1Crude at USD 76.50/Brent at USD 81.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.25% and 3 m libor closed at 5.52%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.07%.
Economic news: ECB members called for patience and caution on rate cuts, though it may look tempting. ECB official also said that ECB follows Fed monetary path with time lag, implying rate cut decision after Fed initiates rate cuts.
German ifo survey also indicated that German economy is stabilizing at lower level of growth.
Data highlights: – German Ifo survey was reported at 85.5.
Monday’s calendar : – US new home sales
|
USD/INR |
|
82.94 |
82.84 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0821 |
1.0841 |
1.0812 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2671 |
1.2702 |
1.2648 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
150.52 |
150.79 |
150.29 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0824 |
1.0837 |
1.0853 |
|
1.0807 |
1.0795 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2673 |
1.27 |
1.2727 |
|
1.2644 |
1.2619 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
150.53 |
150.77 |
151.03 |
|
150.27 |
149.53 |
|
|
USD/INR |
82.90 |
82.96 |
83 |
|
82.86 |
82.80 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.07 |
1.0890 |
SIDE |
UP>1.0890 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2515 |
1.2710/1.2830 |
SIDE |
UP>1.2710 |
|
USD/JPY |
148.80/146.85 |
151/152 |
UP |
SIDE<146.85 |
|
USD/INR |
82.80 |
83.12/83.35 |
SIDE |
UP>83.12 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8730/0.8620 |
0.8850 |
UP |
DN<0.8620 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 20 and 50 day average but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83. 50 day moving average is at 83.10.200 day moving average is at 82.82. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 83.12. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Feb contract are:
PP: 82.91, S1:82.86, S2:82.80, R1:82.98, R2:83.02.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 83.05/83.12. Imports be hedged at 82.80 for 2 months.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0890. Next major support is at 1.07. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important support at 1.07. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.
GBP/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.25 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2829. Important support is at 1.25. Important resistance is at 1.2710/1.2830.
USD/YEN: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 150.90. Important resistance is at 150.90/152 and support is at 148.80/146.85.
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