USDINR opened at 82.28 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.28-82.61 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.60, gain of 11 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.49.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.49 on 15/03. Mar USD/INR closed at 82.88, gain of 37 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.51. Mar Euro/INR closed at 87.95, GBP/INR at 100 and Yen/INR at 62.12. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.35% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 562.4 bn as on March 3 rd.

In March, FII’S  have bought Rs 18635 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 1798 Cr of debt . In last Calendar Year, FII’S sold close to Rs 1.06 lac Cr worth of Equities.

Benchmark Nifty declined 111 points (0.65%) y’day. DOW declined 280 points (0.87%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.03% and Hang Seng  climbed 1.52% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0593, Pound at 1.2073, Yen at 132.95.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1914 and WT1Crude at USD 67.70/Brent at USD 74.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.50% and 3 m libor closed at 5.13%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.38%.

Economic news: Markets wer rattled again by reports of deep trouble for Credit Suisse bank. Early Y’day, Saudi National bank declined to provide liquidity support. There was stability towards close as Credit Suisse announced that it will borrown USD 53 bn from Swiss national bank to preemptively shore liquidity. Credit Suisse faced increased scrutiny after it flagged “material weakness” in its internal controls over financial reporting, and that it was still facing a deluge of customer outflows. 

US 10 Year yields plunged to 3.5% and German yield declined to 2.2%.Euro is suffering from a steep sell-off, with the case for the ECB to deliver a 50bps rate hike in doubt given the current state of the region.

German Ifo institute said that German economy will contract by -0.1% in 2023, but grow by 1.7% in 2024. Ifo stated that the “subdued performance of the global economy is dampening German exports,” while high inflation rates are “depressing consumer spending and construction activity through declining purchasing power and significantly increased financing costs.

Data highlights: – US Core PPI was flat m/m, retail sales declined -0.4% m/m.

-EU industrial production climbed 0.7% m/m.

Thursday’s calendar : – US Weekly jobless claims, building permits and housing starts

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed below 20, 50 and 100 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.52. 50 day moving average is at 82.21.200 day moving average is at 80.76. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.30/82.16 and important resistance is at 82.62/82.75. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for March contract are:

PP: 82.70, S1:82.51, S2:82.15, R1:83.06, R2:83.25.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD IMPORTS be hedged.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages, but below 20 and 50 moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.07. Next major support is at 1.0535. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0535. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1035.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day moving averages , but below 20 and 50 day averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2450. Important support is at 1.1920/1.1803. Important resistance is at 1.2110/1.2270/1.2450.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 100 and 200 day moving averages, but above 50 day average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 137.90. Important resistance is at 137.90 and support is at 132.20.

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