USDINR opened  gap up at 82.29 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.50-82.24 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.49, gain of 36 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.13.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.36 on 14/03. Mar USD/INR closed at 82.51, gain of 39 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.12. Mar Euro/INR closed at 88.52, GBP/INR at 100.35 and Yen/INR at 61.68. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.35% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 562.4 bn as on March 3 rd.

In March, FII’S  have bought Rs 18635 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 1798 Cr of debt . In last Calendar Year, FII’S sold close to Rs 1.06 lac Cr worth of Equities.

Benchmark Nifty declined 111 points (0.65%) y’day. DOW climbed 336 points (1.06%) y’day. Nikkei declined 2.19% and Hang Seng  declined 2.27% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0735, Pound at 1.2158, Yen at 134.41.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1907 and WT1Crude at USD 72/Brent at USD 78.30.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.68% and 3 m libor closed at 5.13%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.38%.

Economic news: Indian WPI inflation continued to decline as it hit 25 month low of 3.85% in Feb. WPI climbed 0.2% m/m.Mfrg inflation declined to 1.94% and fuel inflation fell to 14.82%. Food inflation climbed to 3.81% from 2.38%.

US CPI moderated to 6% in Feb, down from 6.4% in Jan. Core prices rose 0.5% m/m. US stocks edged higher as bank fears ebbed and inflation moderated.

Data highlights: – US CPI

-UK unemployment rate and claimant count change.

Wednesday’s calendar : – US PPI, retail sales

-EU industrial production

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed below 20, 50 and 100 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.52. 50 day moving average is at 82.21.200 day moving average is at 80.76. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.30/82.16 and important resistance is at 82.62. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for March contract are:

PP: 82.48, S1:82.33, S2:82.15, R1:82.66, R2:82.81.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD IMPORTS be hedged.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages, but below 20 and 50 moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.07. Next major support is at 1.0535. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0535. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1035.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day moving averages , but below 20 and 50 day averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2450. Important support is at 1.1920/1.1803. Important resistance is at 1.2110/1.2270/1.2450.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 100 and 200 day moving averages, but above 50 day average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 137.90. Important resistance is at 137.90 and support is at 132.20.

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