USDINR opened  at 82.15 on Friday and the pair traded in the 81.99-82.15 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.05, gain of 7 ps for USD as against prior close of 81.98.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.01 on 10/03. Mar USD/INR closed at 82.12, gain of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.08. Mar Euro/INR closed at 87.14, GBP/INR at 98.48 and Yen/INR at 60.27. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.18% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 562.4 bn as on March 3 rd.

In March, FII’S  have bought Rs 18635 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 1798 Cr of debt . In last Calendar Year, FII’S sold close to Rs 1.06 lac Cr worth of Equities.

Benchmark Nifty declined 176 points (1%) on Friday. DOW declined 345 points (1.07%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 1.67% and Hang Seng  declined 3.04% on Friday.

Euro closed the week at 1.0644, Pound at 1.2033, Yen at 134.99.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1872 and WT1Crude at USD 76.60/Brent at USD 82.60.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.70% and 3 m libor closed at 4.95%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.42%.

Economic news: IIP climbed 5.2% in Jan, better than expected. In DEC, IIP rose 4.3%. Manufacturing climbed 3.6%, mining sector grew by 8.8%. Power sector output climbed 12.7%.

U.S. economy continued to create jobs faster than most expected in February, but wage growth eased and the average worker’s working hours fell, suggesting that the labor market is indeed starting to cool.US non-farm payroll employment rose 311k in February, well above expectation of 200k. January’s figure was revised just slightly down from 517k to 504k. That compared with average monthly gain of 343k over the prior 6 months. Unemployment rate rose from 3.4% to 3.6%, above expectation of 3.4%. Participation rate rose from 62.4% to 62.5%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% mom, below expectation of 0.3% mom. 

USD weakened as markets considered the data to be mixed. US tech start up bank Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, exerting pressure on banking stocks and triggering new worries.

Data highlights: – -UK industrial and manufacturing production declined -0.3% and -0.4% m/m.

Monday’s calendar : – No major data release.

 Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed below 20, 50 and 100 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.53. 50 day moving average is at 82.23.200 day moving average is at 80.76. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 81.62/81.46 and important resistance is at 82.30. Spot closed below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for March contract are:

PP: 82.14, S1:82.05, S2:81.98, R1:82.21, R2:82.30.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD IMPORTS be hedged.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages, but below 20 and 50 moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.07. Next major support is at 1.0535. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0535. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1035.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day moving averages , but below 20 and 50 day averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2450. Important support is at 1.1920/1.1803. Important resistance is at 1.2110/1.2270/1.2450.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 100 and 200 day moving averages, but above 50 day average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 137.90. Important resistance is at 137.90 and support is at 132.20.

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