USDINR opened  at 81.92 y’day and the pair traded in the 81.77-82 range. Spot USDINR closed at 81.98, loss of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.06.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 81.91 on 09/03. Mar USD/INR closed at 82.08, loss of 6 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.14. Mar Euro/INR closed at 86.96, GBP/INR at 97.77 and Yen/INR at 60.54. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.11% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 560.90 bn as on March 3 rd.


In March, FII’S  have bought Rs 13581 Cr of Equities and have bought Rs 398 Cr of debt . In last Calendar Year, FII’S sold close to Rs 1.06 lac Cr worth of Equities.

Benchmark Nifty declined 165 points (0.93%) y’day. DOW declined 543 points (1.66%) y’day . Nikkei climbed 0.63% and Hang Seng  declined 0.63% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0593, Pound at 1.1923, Yen at 136.03.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1835 and WT1Crude at USD 75.50/Brent at USD 81.50.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.87% and 3 m libor closed at 4.95%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.44%.

Economic news: Fed’s recent Beige Book report noted that , “US economy experienced slight growth at the beginning of the year. However, consumers’ purchasing power and discretionary income have been affected by high inflation and higher interest rates. The labor market conditions were solid, with moderate wage increases expected in the coming year. Inflationary pressures persisted throughout various districts, but the rate of price increases has moderated, with many contacts anticipating this trend to continue.

US President proposed hike in corporate tax from 21% to 28% and increase in capital gains tax from 20% to 39.6%. US Equity markets were rattled by steep decline in banking sector.

Focus is on US NFP.

Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims climbed to 211k.

Friday’s calendar : – US employment data

-UK industrial and manufacturing production.

USD/INR   82.2981.99
EUR/USD       1.05931.05911.0538
GBP/USD       1.19231.19391.1832
USD/JPY       136.03137.26135.96

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency PairsPivotR1R2R3S1S2S3
USD/INR81.9182.0682.15 81.8281.67 


Currency PairSupportsResistancesTrendRemarks

Technicals: Spot closed below 20, 50 and 100 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.56. 50 day moving average is at 82.25.200 day moving average is at 80.76. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 81.62/81.46 and important resistance is at 82.30. Spot closed below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for March contract are:

PP: 82.01, S1:81.90, S2:81.74, R1:82.18, R2:82.28.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD IMPORTS be hedged.


EURO/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages, but below 20 and 50 moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.08. Next major support is at 1.0535. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1035. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1035.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day moving averages , but below 20 and 50 day averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1920 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2450. Important support is at 1.1920. Important resistance is at 1.2145/1.2270/1.2450.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 100 and 200 day moving averages, but above 20 and 50 day averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 127.25. Important resistance is at 137 and later at 139.20. Supports are at 134 and 132.

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