FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 82.94 Y’day and the pair traded in the 82.82-82.94 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.85, loss of 11 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.96.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.92 on 22/02. Feb USD/INR closed at 82.85, loss of 13 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.98. Feb Euro/INR closed at 89.93, GBP/INR at 105.01 and Yen/INR at 55.23. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.72% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 617 bn, as on Feb 9 th.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (22/02) |
|
USDINR |
82.92 |
|
EURINR |
89.87 |
|
GBPINR |
104.88 |
|
JPYINR |
55.20 |
In Feb, FPI’S have sold Rs 5515 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 13966 Cr of debt . In last calendar year, FII’S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 162 points (0.74%) Y’day. US S&P climbed 105 points (2.11%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 2.13% y’day and Hang Seng climbed 1.45% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0828, Pound at 1.2641, Yen at 150.38.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2026 and WT1Crude at USD 78/Brent at USD 83.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.32% and 3 m libor closed at 5.52%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.05%.
Economic news: ECB minutes showed cautious stance among its members towards the idea of interest rate cuts. Officials reached a “broad consensus” on the notion that discussing rate cuts at this juncture was “premature” with many members emphasizing “risk management considerations” as a foundation for this perspective.
EU’S uplift in services contributed to PMI Composite’s rise from 47.9 to 48.9, marking an 8-month peak yet still indicating slight overall economic contraction.
UK PMI Composite index rose from 52.9 to 53.3, underscoring a period of accelerated economic growth and marking the highest reading in nine months. Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, emphasized the significance, noting that recent uptick is part of a consistent pattern of improvement over the “four straight months”.
Global financial markets are on risk on mode, fueled by tech enthusiasm. AI and semi conductor companies led the rally.
Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims declined to 201k, existing home sales climbed to 4 mn.
-EU PMI(mfrg-flash), declined to 46.1 . PMI(services-flash) improved to 50 and CPI climbed 2.8% y/y.
-UK PMI(mfrg-flash) declined to 47.1 and PMI(services-flash) improved to 54.3.
Friday’s calendar : – German Ifo suvey
|
USD/INR |
|
82.94 |
82.825 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0828 |
1.0888 |
1.0803 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2641 |
1.2710 |
1.2612 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
150.38 |
150.69 |
150.01 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0839 |
1.0875 |
1.0924 |
1.0960 |
1.0790 |
1.0754 |
1.0705 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2661 |
1.2710 |
1.2759 |
1.2808 |
1.2612 |
1.2563 |
1.2514 |
|
USD/JPY |
150.39 |
150.77 |
151.07 |
151.44 |
150.09 |
149.71 |
149.41 |
|
USD/INR |
82.87 |
82.92 |
82.99 |
|
82.80 |
82.75 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.07 |
1.0890 |
SIDE |
UP>1.0890 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2480 |
1.2695/1.2775 |
SIDE |
UP>1.2695 |
|
USD/JPY |
148.80/146 |
152 |
UP |
DN<144.35 |
|
USD/INR |
82.80 |
83.12/83.35 |
SIDE |
UP>83.12 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8730 |
0.8850 |
UP |
DN<0.8620 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 20 and 50 day average but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.02. 50 day moving average is at 83.12.200 day moving average is at 82.82. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 83.12. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Feb contract are:
PP: 82.87, S1:82.80, S2:82.75, R1:82.92, R2:82.99.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 83.05/83.12. Imports be hedged at 82.80 for 2 months.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0830/1.0890. Next major support is at 1.07. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important support at 1.07. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.
GBP/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2810 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.25. Important support is at 1.2480. Important resistance is at 1.2695.
USD/YEN: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 145.90. Important resistance is at 152 and support is at 148.80/146.
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