USDINR opened at 82.49 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.37-82.62 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.50, loss of 17 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.67.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.54 on 01/03. Mar USD/INR closed at 82.61, loss of 11 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.72. Mar Euro/INR closed at 88.20, GBP/INR at 99.46 and Yen/INR at 61.25. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.11% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 561.26 bn as on Feb 17 th. This is the third consecutive week of a drop in the reserves after the $8.319 billion decrease in the previous reporting week to $566.948 billion.

In Feb, FII’S  have bought Rs 2345 Cr of Equities and have bought Rs 1150 Cr of debt . In last Calendar Year, FII’S sold close to Rs 1.06 lac Cr worth of Equities.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 146 points (0.85%) y’day. DOW climbed 5 points (0.02%) y’day . Nikkei climbed 0.26% and Hang Seng  climbed 4.21% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0660, Pound at 1.2022, Yen at 136.55.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1842 and WT1Crude at USD 77.50/Brent at USD 84.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.01% and 3 m libor closed at 4.95%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.43%.

Economic news: GST collections for Feb climbed 12% y/y to 1.5 lac Cr. Core sector grew by 7.8% in Jan. Fertilizer production climbed 17.9%, Coal output climbed 13.4%

US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose from 47.4 to 47.7 in February, below expectation of 47.9. ISM said: “This is the fourth month of slow contraction and continuation of a downward trend that began in June 2022“The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the February reading (47.7 percent) corresponds to a change of minus-0.3 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

Atlanta Fed President said that Fed should hike by 50bps to 5.00-5.25%, and hold it at that level until well into 2024.

Data highlights: – -US ISM(mfrg) dipped to 47.7, but prices component rose to 51.3, and construction spending declined -0.1% m/m.

-EU PMI(mfrg) was finalized at 48.3.

-UK PMI(mfrg) inched higher to 49.3.

Thursday’s calendar : US Weekly jobless claims, factory orders

-EU PMI(services), PPI and unemployment rate

-UK PMI(services)

 Daily Support/Resistance table

 MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 50, 100 and 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.62. 50 day moving average is at 82.32.200 day moving average is at 80.64. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.34 and important resistance is at 82.95. Spot closed at the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for March contract are:

PP: 82.61, S1:82.47, S2:82.34, R1:82.74, R2:82.88.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Exports be hedged.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages, but below 20 and 50 moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.08. Next major support is at 1.0480. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1035. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1035.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day moving averages , but below 20 and 50 day averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2450 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2450. Important support is at 1.1920. Important resistance is at 1.2270/1.2450.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 100 and 200 day moving averages, but above 20 and 50 day averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 127.25. Important resistance is at 137 and later at 139.20. Supports are at 135.20 and 132.

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