USDINR opened at 82.70 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.63-82.75 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.67, loss of 17 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.84. Rupee lost 74 ps in Feb. Jan close was 81.93.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.68 on 28/02. Mar USD/INR closed at 82.72, loss of 19 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.91. Mar Euro/INR closed at 87.93, GBP/INR at 100.09 and Yen/INR at 60.82. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.11% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 561.26 bn as on Feb 17 th. This is the third consecutive week of a drop in the reserves after the $8.319 billion decrease in the previous reporting week to $566.948 billion.


In Feb, FII’S  have bought Rs 2345 Cr of Equities and have bought Rs 1150 Cr of debt . In last Calendar Year, FII’S sold close to Rs 1.06 lac Cr worth of Equities.

Benchmark Nifty declined 232 points (0.71%) y’day. DOW climbed 72 points (0.22%) y’day . Nikkei climbed 0.08% and Hang Seng  declined 0.79% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0595, Pound at 1.2041, Yen at 136.34.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1836 and WT1Crude at USD 77.50/Brent at USD 84.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.93% and 3 m libor closed at 4.95%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.45%.

Economic news: Indian economy grew at 4.4 per cent between October and December 2022 (Q3FY23). Indian GDP for the full year is expected to be 7%. The growth in nominal GDP at current price during FY23 is estimated at 15.9 per cent as compared to 18.4 per cent in FY22. The base effect is also a significant reason for the lower growth rate as the economy had shown a robust growth rate of over 11 per cent in the corresponding period of Q3 of previous year. Mfrg sector grew by 1.1% y/y in Q3. This is due to slower consumer demand due to higher interest rates and slowing exports. Agri sector grew by 3.7%, electricity, and utility services expanded by 8.2%, construction grew by 8.4%. Services sector grew by 9.7%.

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said that, “our assessment of December remains solid, that we needed a sequence of 50 basis point hikes to bring us inside a zone where we would need to think harder about whether rates are sufficiently restrictive to deliver the return of inflation to 2%.“The data flow since then suggests that the assessment is solid, that we need another 50 basis points in March,” he said.

US NFP, ISM data are two important data events in the coming week. ECB minutes will be watched closely.

Data highlights: -US durables order declined -4.5% m/m. Pending home sales climbed 8.1% m/m.

-US House price index climbed 4.6% y/y, consumer confidence dipped to 102.9.

Wednesday’s calendar : US ADP employment report.

-US ISM(mfrg) and construction spending

-EU PMI(mfrg)

-UK PMI(mfrg)

USD/INR   82.7582.63
EUR/USD       1.05951.06451.0574
GBP/USD       1.20411.21431.2012
USD/JPY       136.34136.93135.76

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency PairsPivotR1R2R3S1S2S3
132.7382.6882.7382.80 82.6182.56 


Currency PairSupportsResistancesTrendRemarks

Technicals: Spot closed above 20, 50, 100 and 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.57. 50 day moving average is at 82.32.200 day moving average is at 80.64. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important supports are at 82.58/82.34 and important resistance is at 82.95. Spot above below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for March contract are:

PP: 82.77, S1:82.65, S2:82.58, R1:82.84, R2:82.96.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Exports be hedged.


EURO/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages, but below 20 and 50 moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.08. Next major support is at 1.0480. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1035. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1035.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day moving averages , but below 20 and 50 day averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2450 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2450. Important support is at 1.1920. Important resistance is at 1.2270/1.2450.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 100 and 200 day moving averages, but above 20 and 50 day averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 127.25. Important resistance is at 137 and later at 139.20. Supports are at 135.20 and 132.

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