USDINR opened at 82.70 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.59-82.74 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.72, loss of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.80.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.64 on 16/02. Feb USD/INR closed at 82.71, loss of 17 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.88. Feb Euro/INR closed at 88.52, GBP/INR at 99.70 and Yen/INR at 61.91. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.08% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 575.25 bn as on Feb 3 rd.  


In Feb, FII’S  sold Rs 5013 Cr of Equities and have bought Rs 486 Cr of debt . In last Calendar Year, FII’S sold close to Rs 1.06 lac Cr worth of Equities.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 20 points (0.11%) y’day. DOW declined 431 points (1.26%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.71%  and Hang Seng climbed 0.84% y’day.

Euro closed at 1.0660, Pound at 1.1963, Yen at 134.32.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1840 and WT1Crude at USD 78.50/Brent at USD 85.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.87% and 3 m libor closed at 4.84%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.35%.

Economic news:  US PPI was stronger than expected, in line with CPI data’s strength.

Fed member said “at this juncture, the incoming data have not changed my view that we will need to bring the fed funds rate above 5% and hold it there for some time to be sufficiently restrictive to ensure that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%.”

Another Fed member said that the prospect of the Fed reverting to larger rate hikes isn’t off the table.

Data highlights: – US PPI climbed 0.7% m/m, Weekly jobless claims dipped to 194k.

-US Building permits was reported at 1.34 mn and housing starts declined mildly to 1.31 mn.

Friday’s calendar : – UK retail sales

USD/INR   82.7482.59
EUR/USD       1.06601.07231.0655
GBP/USD       1.19631.20741.1966
USD/JPY       134.32134.39133.60

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency PairsPivotR1R2R3S1S2S3
132.7382.6882.7882.83 82.6282.53 


Currency PairSupportsResistancesTrendRemarks

Technicals: Spot closed below 50 day average, but still above 20, 100 and 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.10. 50 day moving average is at 82.29.200 day moving average is at 80.16. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important supports are at 82.34/82.15  and important resistance is at 82.95. Spot above below its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Feb contract are:

PP: 82.71, S1:82.61, S2:82.51, R1:82.81, R2:82.91.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Exports be hedged.


EURO/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0790. Next major support is at 1.0480. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1035. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 0.9535.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day moving averages , but below 20 and 50 day averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2450 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.1960/1.1840. Important resistance is at 1.2195/1.2445.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 100 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 127.25. Important resistance is at 132.90. Major support is at 127.25.

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