USDINR opened at 82.67 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.63-82.78 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.73, gain of 23 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.50.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.70 on 13/02. Feb USD/INR closed at 82.75, gain of 11 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.64. Feb Euro/INR closed at 88.40, GBP/INR at 99.73 and Yen/INR at 62.60. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.12% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 575.25 bn as on Feb 3 rd.  

In Feb, FII’S  sold Rs 5013 Cr of Equities and have bought Rs 486 Cr of debt . In last Calendar Year, FII’S sold close to Rs 1.06 lac Cr worth of Equities.

Benchmark Nifty declined 85 points (0.48%) y’day. DOW climbed 376 points (1.1%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.88%  and Hang Seng declined 0.12% y’day.

Euro closed at 1.0732, Pound at 1.2150, Yen at 132.12.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1867 and WT1Crude at USD 79/Brent at USD 86.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.69% and 3 m libor closed at 4.84%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.36%.

Economic news: CPI surged to 6.52% in Jan vs 5.72% in Dec. Food inflation climbed to 5.94%. RBI is mandated to maintain inflation in the 2-6% band. Only last week, RBO raised repo rates by 25 bps. With this upsurge in inflation, RBI may continue with its 25 bps rate hike atleast twice in coming months.

EU Commission upgraded EU GDP forecast for 2023 from 0.3% to 0.9% and sounded optimistic. “Europe’s economy is proving resilient in the face of current challenges. We were able to narrowly avoid a recession. We are somewhat more optimistic about growth prospects and the projected decline in inflation this year, as per the commission release.

Data highlights: – No major data release.

Tuesday’s calendar : – US CPI

-EU GDP

-UK unemployment rate and claimant count

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed below 50 day average, but still above 20, 100 and 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 81.92. 50 day moving average is at 82.27.200 day moving average is at 80.16. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important supports are at 82.34/82.15  and important resistance is at 82.80/82.95. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Feb contract are:

PP: 82.75, S1:82.66, S2:82.58, R1:82.83, R2:82.92.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Exports be hedged.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0790. Next major support is at 1.0480. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1035. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 0.9535.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day moving averages , but below 20 and 50 day averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2450 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.1960/1.1840. Important resistance is at 1.2195/1.2445.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 100 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 127.25. Important resistance is at 132.90. Major support is at 127.25.

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