USDINR opened at 82.68 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.48-82.73 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.50, loss of 20 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.70.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.67 on 08/02. Feb USD/INR closed at 82.64, loss of 17 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.81. Feb Euro/INR closed at 89.12, GBP/INR at 99.93 and Yen/INR at 63.37. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.15% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 576.75 bn as on Jan 27 th.  

In Jan, FII’S  sold Rs 10350 Cr of Equities and have bought Rs 2093 Cr of debt . In last Calendar Year, FII’S sold close to Rs 1.06 lac Cr worth of Equities.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 43 points (0.24%) y’day. DOW declined 207 points (0.61%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.29%  and Hang Seng declined 0.07% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0714, Pound at 1.2062, Yen at 131.74.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1884 and WT1Crude at USD 78/Brent at USD 85.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.61% and 3 m libor closed at 4.84%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.34%.

Economic news: RBI hiked repo rates by 25 bps to 6.5%. GDP growth is expected to be 6.4% in FY 24 and inflation is expected to average 5.3%. RBI Governor said that though CAD was at 3.3% of GDP in H1 FY 23, it is manageable and expected to come down. He said that remittances and services sector is contributing to invisible surplus and it is cushioning merchandise trade deficit.

US Stocks slumped on hawkish message from Fed members. Google led tech rout due to glitch in its AI engine, launched to counter ChatGPT.

Data highlights: – No major data release.

Thursday’s calendar : – US Weekly jobless claims.

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed below 50 day average, but still above 20, 100 and 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 81.76. 50 day moving average is at 82.19.200 day moving average is at 80.16. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important supports are at 82.34/82.15  and important resistance is at 82.76/82.95. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Feb contract are:

PP: 82.67, S1:82.53, S2:82.42, R1:82.78, R2:82.92.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Exports be hedged.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0945/1.1045. Next major support is at 1.0740/1.0675. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1035. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 0.9535.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day moving averages , but below 20 and 50 day averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2450 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.1940/1.1840. Important resistance is at 1.2450.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 127.25. Important resistance is at 132.50. Major support is at 127.25.

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