19/09/2018
USDINR opened gap up at 72.54 y’day and the pair traded in the 72.35-72.97 range. Spot USDINR closed at 72.97, gain of 46 ps ps for USD as against prior close of 72.51.RBI reference rate was fixed at 72.37. Rupee declined as Govt measures announced on Friday were not considered adequate enough to reverse Rupee’s decline. Sep USD/INR closed at 73.01, gain of 43 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 72.58. Sep Euro/INR closed at 85.34, GBP/INR at 95.94 and Yen/INR at 65.17.
FII’S have sold Rs 1417 Cr of Indian Equities in Sept till 12/9 . FII’S have sold Rs 4748 Cr of Indian debt securities in Sept till 12/9 . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have sold Rupees 1416 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 43521 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.87% y’day. DOW climbed 184 points (0.74%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 1.41% and Hang seng climbed 0.56% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1663, Pound at 1.3148,Yen at 112.34.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1204 and WT1Crude at USD 69.62.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.05% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 8.13%.
Economic news: US Trade Representative finally announced the tariffs on USD 200B of Chinese imports, effective September 24, 2018. The initial tariff rate is 10%. Staring January 1, 2019, the tariff rate will be increased to 25%. China has retaliated on US imports worth USD 60 bn. US President warned that new round of tariffs on around USD 267B of additional imports will be pursued if China retaliates.
Data Highlights: – No major data
Wednesday’s calendar: US housing starts and building permits
-UK CPI, PPI(output) and RPI
| USD/INR | 72.97 | 72.35 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1663 | 1.1723 | 1.1653 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3148 | 1.3175 | 1.3119 |
| USD/JPY | 112.34 | 112.39 | 111.66 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1685 | 1.1717 | 1.1755 | 1.1787 | 1.1647 | 1.1615 | 1.1577 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3154 | 1.3189 | 1.3210 | 1.3245 | 1.3133 | 1.3098 | 1.3077 |
| USD/JPY | 112.11
|
112.56 | 112.84 | 113.29
|
111.83 | 111.38 | 111.10
|
| USD/INR | 72.76 | 73.17 | 73.38 | 72.55 | 72.14 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1525/1.13 | 1.1735/1.1960 | SIDE | DN<1.1525 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2940/1.2785/1.2660 | 1.3185 | SIDE | DN<1.2940 |
| USD/JPY | 109.70 | 113.10 | UP | DN<109.70 |
| USD/INR | 70.70 | 72.90 | UP | SIDE<70.70 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9440 | 0.9850 | DN | UP >0.9850 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 71.11. 50 day moving average is at 69.72. 200 day moving average is at 66.53. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30 . Important support zone is at 71.20/70.70 and later at 70.30. Important resistance is at 72.90. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 72.82,S1:73.23, S2:73.44, R1:72.60, R2:72.20.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1735 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.13. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1735. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is sideways in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2662 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.32. Important support is at 1.2940 and later at 1.2660.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.70. Next important support is at 109.70. Important resistance is at 113.10.
