USDINR opened at 82.40 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.38-82.76 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.73, gain of 90 ps for USD as against prior close of 81.83.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.45 on 06/02. Feb USD/INR closed at 82.86, loss of 84 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.02. Feb Euro/INR closed at 89.25, GBP/INR at 99.66 and Yen/INR at 62.90. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.15% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 576.75 bn as on Jan 27 th.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (06/02) |
| USDINR | 82.45 |
| EURINR | 89 |
| GBPINR | 99.49 |
| JPYINR | 62.58 |
In Jan, FII’S sold Rs 10350 Cr of Equities and have bought Rs 2093 Cr of debt . In last Calendar Year, FII’S sold close to Rs 1.06 lac Cr worth of Equities.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 243 points (1.38%) y’day. DOW declined 35 points (0.10%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.67% and Hang Seng declined 2.02% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0738, Pound at 1.2040, Yen at 132.40.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1883 and WT1Crude at USD 74.50/Brent at USD 81.40.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.62% and 3 m libor closed at 4.81%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.32%.
Economic news: Rupee plunged 1% to close at 82.73 on upbeat US employment data. Steep climb in USD Index weighed down on Asian Currencies. US 10 Year yields jumped to 1 month high.
Data highlights: – EU sentix investor confidence climbed to -8.
-UK PMI(construction) remains in contraction mode at 48.4.
Tuesday’s calendar : – German industrial production.
| USD/INR | 82.86 | 82.26 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.0738 | 1.0799 | 1.0710 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.2040 | 1.2077 | 1.2006 | |
| USD/JPY | 132.40 | 132.90 | 131.59 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0746 | 1.0782 | 1.0835 | 1.0872 | 1.0693 | 1.0657 | 1.0603 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2036 | 1.2066 | 1.2107 | 1.2137 | 1.1995 | 1.1965 | 1.1923 |
| USD/JPY | 132.37 | 133.15 | 133.69 | 134.47 | 131.84 | 131.05 | 130.52 |
| USD/INR | 82.62 | 82.86 | 83 | 82.48 | 82.24 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0740/1.0675 | 1.0930/1.1030 | UP | SIDE<1.0675 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1840 | 1.2445 | SIDE | DN<1.1940 |
| USD/JPY | 127.20 | 132.60/133.80 | DN | SIDE>132.60 |
| USD/INR | 82.40/81.76 | 82.94 | UP | DN<81.76 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9090 | 0.93/0.9590 | DN | SIDE>0.93 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 50 day average, but still above 20, 100 and 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 81.70. 50 day moving average is at 82.15.200 day moving average is at 80.16. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important supports are at 81.76/81.68/81.42 and important resistance is at 82.95. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Feb contract are:
PP: 82.66, S1:82.46, S2:82.06, R1:83.06, R2:83.26.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
Exports be hedged.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0945/1.1045. Next major support is at 1.0740/1.0675. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1035. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 0.9535.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day moving averages , but below 20 and 50 day averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2450 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.1940/1.1840. Important resistance is at 1.2450.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 127.25. Important resistance is at 132.50. Major support is at 127.25.
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