FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.02 on Friday and the pair traded in the 83-83.04 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.01, loss of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.05.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.04 on 16/02. Feb USD/INR closed at 83.03, loss of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.06. Feb Euro/INR closed at 89.51, GBP/INR at 104.57 and Yen/INR at 55.48. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.74% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 617 bn, as on Feb 9 th.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (16/02) |
|
USDINR |
83.04 |
|
EURINR |
89.35 |
|
GBPINR |
104.48 |
|
JPYINR |
55.40 |
In Feb, FPI’S have sold Rs 5515 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 13966 Cr of debt . In last calendar year, FII’S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 129 points (0.59%) on Friday. US S&P declined 24 points (0.48%) on Friday. Nikkei climbed 0.92% y’day and Hang Seng climbed 2.48% on Friday.
Euro is now at 1.0777, Pound at 1.2601, Yen at 150.18.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2013 and WT1Crude at USD 79.20/Brent at USD 83.53.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.28% and 3 m libor closed at 5.52%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.09%.
Economic news: US PPI was stronger than expected, pointing to persistent inflationary pressures. USD remains strong, but exhibiting sideways trend in strength. Focus now shifts to US FOMC minutes.
Data highlights: – – US PPI climbed 0.3% m/m, Building permits declined to 1.47 mn and housing starts declined to 1.33 mn.
Monday’s calendar : No major data release.
|
USD/INR |
|
83.04 |
83 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0777 |
1.0788 |
1.0732 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2601 |
1.2626 |
1.2550 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
150.18 |
150.65 |
149.82 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0765 |
1.0799 |
1.0821 |
|
1.0742 |
1.0709 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2592 |
1.2634 |
1.2668 |
|
1.2558 |
1.2516 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
150.21 |
150.61 |
151.04 |
|
149.77 |
149.38 |
|
|
USD/INR |
83.01 |
83.02 |
83.05 |
|
82.98 |
82.97 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.07 |
1.0810/1.0890 |
SIDE |
UP>1.0890 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2480 |
1.2695/1.2775 |
SIDE |
UP>1.2695 |
|
USD/JPY |
148.80/146 |
152 |
UP |
DN<144.35 |
|
USD/INR |
82.80 |
83.18/83.24 |
SIDE |
UP>83.35 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8730 |
0.8850 |
UP |
DN<0.8620 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 20 and 50 day average but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.05. 50 day moving average is at 83.14.200 day moving average is at 82.82. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 83.15. Spot closed at the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Feb contract are:
PP: 83.04, S1:83.015, S2:82, R1:83.05, R2:83.075.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 83.35/83.40. Imports be hedged at 82.92/82.80 for 3 months.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0830/1.0890. Next major support is at 1.07. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important support at 1.07. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.
GBP/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2810 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.25. Important support is at 1.2480. Important resistance is at 1.2695.
USD/YEN: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 145.90. Important resistance is at 152 and support is at 148.80/146.
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