USDINR opened at 81.62 y’day and the pair traded in the 81.53-81.75 range. Spot USDINR closed at 81.55, loss of 2 ps for USD as against prior close of 81.57.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 81.58 on 12/01. Jan USD/INR closed at 81.63, loss of 10 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 81.73. Jan Euro/INR closed at 87.96, GBP/INR at 99.36 and Yen/INR at 62.48. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.14% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 562 bn as on Jan 6 th.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (12/01)|
Benchmark Nifty declined 37 points (0.21%) y’day. DOW climbed 217 points (0.64%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.01% and Hang Seng climbed 0.36% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0853, Pound at 1.2215, Yen at 129.17.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1900 and WT1Crude at USD 78/Brent at USD 84.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.46% and 3 m libor closed at 4.81%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.29%.
Index of Industrial Production (IIP), jumped 7.1% in November as against 4% in October. Mfrg grew by 6.1% . IIP grew by 5.5% in Apr-Nov period. Mining grew by 9.1%, Power generation grew by 12.7% in Nov.
US CPI declined -0.1% mom in December, below expectation of 0.0% mom. CPI core (ex food and energy) rose 0.3% mom, matched expectations. Food index rose 0.3% mom. Energy index dropped -4.5% mom. Over the last 12 months, CPI slowed from 7.1% yoy to 6.5% yoy, matched expectations. That’s also the lowest level since October 2021. CPI core slowed from 6.0% yoy to 5.7% yoy, matched expectations. Energy interest was at 7.3% yoy while food was at 10.4% yoy.
Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims declined to 205k.
Friday’s calendar : EU industrial production
-UK industrial and manufacturing production.
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed below 20 and 50 day averages, but still above 100, 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.58. 50 day moving average is at 82.16.200 day moving average is at 79.63. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 81.55/81.27 and important resistance is at 81.82/81.95/82.05. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Jan contract are:
PP: 81.67, S1:81.54, S2:81.45, R1:81.76, R2:81.89.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
Exports be hedged on rally to 82+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0735/1.08/1.0945. Next major support is at 1.0480/1.0420. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0740. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 0.9535.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2445 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.1840. Important resistance is at 1.2450/1.2750.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 134.50. Important support is at 129.50/126.50. Major resistance is at 134.50/138.50.
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