USDINR opened at 82.29 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.28-82.45 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.36, loss of 36 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.72.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.40 on 09/01. Jan USD/INR closed at 82.44, loss of 34 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.78. Jan Euro/INR closed at 88.13, GBP/INR at 100.08 and Yen/INR at 62.46. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.10% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 562 bn as on Jan 6 th.  

In Jan, FII’S have sold Rs 2312 Cr of Equities till date and have sold Rs 1348 Cr of debt till date. In last Calendar Year, FII’S sold close to Rs 1.06 lac Cr worth of Equities.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 241 points (1.35%) y’day. DOW declined 112 points (0.34%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.59%  and Hang Seng climbed 1.89% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0730, Pound at 1.2172, Yen at 131.57.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1874 and WT1Crude at USD 74.50/Brent at USD 79.50.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.54% and 3 m libor closed at 4.81%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.37%.

Economic news: Indian FY 23 GDP is expected to be 7% as per advance estimate released by CSO. In its economic bulletin, ECB said, “Looking ahead, wage growth over the next few quarters is expected to be very strong compared with historical patterns.”“This reflects robust labour markets that so far have not been substantially affected by the slowing of the economy, increases in national minimum wages and some catch-up between wages and high rates of inflation.”

Euro extended its rally. US Yields declined further.

Data highlights: – EU unemployment rate was reported at 6.5% and sentix investor confidence was reported at -17.5.

Tuesday’s calendar : No major data release.

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 50, 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.73. 50 day moving average is at 82.23.200 day moving average is at 79.63. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.40/82.25/81.95 and important resistance is at 82.75/82.94. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Jan contract are:

PP: 82.45, S1:82.36, S2:82.27, R1:82.53, R2:82.63.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Exports be hedged on rally to 82.60/82.75+.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0735/1.08/1.0945. Next major support is at 1.0480/1.0420. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0740. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 0.9535.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2445 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.1840. Important resistance is at 1.2450/1.2750.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 134.50. Important support is at 129.50/126.50. Major resistance is at 134.50/138.50.

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