USDINR opened at 82.68 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.56-82.78 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.74, gain of 1 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.73.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.84 on 02/01. Jan USD/INR closed at 82.94, gain of 10 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.84. Jan Euro/INR closed at 88.66, GBP/INR at 99.90 and Yen/INR at 63.54. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.02% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 562 bn as on Dec 30 th.  FX reserves has declined 72 bn y/y and around 44.5 bn from March 2022.

In Dec, FII’S have bought Rs 2206 Cr of Equities till date and have sold Rs 3228 Cr of debt till date. In this Calendar Year, FII’S have sold close to Rs 1.06 lac Cr worth of Equities.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 92 points (0.51%) y’day.US markets were closed y’day Nikkei closed flat  and Hang Seng climbed 0.20% on Friday.

Euro is now at 1.0661, Pound at 1.2055, Yen at 130.14

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1835 and WT1Crude at USD 79.50/Brent at USD 85.40.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.84% and 3 m libor closed at 4.77%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.32%.

Economic news: Indian Dec PMI (Mfrg) rose to 2 year high of 57.8. According to the survey, demand resilience boosted sales growth in December,  with the rate of increase picking up to the quickest since February 2021. Cost pressures, according to the survey, remained relatively muted in December, with the overall rate of inflation little-changed from November and the second-slowest since September 2020. Despite a deteriorating outlook for the global economy, manufacturers were strongly confident in their ability to lift production from present levels,” the S&P economist said. 

GST Collections in Dec was reported at 1.49 lac Cr.

US FOMC meeting minutes, PMI data from EU, US ISM and employment data are key events to watch in coming week.

Data highlights: – No major data release.

Monday’s calendar : US Construction spending

-UK PMI(mfrg).

 Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 50, 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.69. 50 day moving average is at 82.23.200 day moving average is at 79.31. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.58/82.40 and important resistance is at 82.92. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Jan contract are:

PP: 82.91, S1:82.68, S2:82.44, R1:83.16, R2:83.38.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Exports be hedged on rally to 82.90+.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0735/1.08/1.0945. Next major support is at 1.0575. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0575. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 0.9535.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2445 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.1750/1.1650. Important resistance is at 1.2350/1.2450/1.2750.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 134.50. Important support is at 130.50/129.50/126.50. Major resistance is at 134.50/138.50.

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