USDINR opened at 82.78 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.78-82.92 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.86, gain of 1 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.85.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.91 on 28/12. Jan USD/INR closed at 82.98, loss of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.01. Dec Euro/INR closed at 88.39, GBP/INR at 100.15 and Yen/INR at 62.19. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.12% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 564 bn as on Dec 9 th. FX reserves have risen for the 5th straight week from USD 527 bn.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (28/12) |
| USDINR | 82.91 |
| EURINR | 88.29 |
| GBPINR | 99.77 |
| JPYINR | 61.90 |
In Dec, FII’S have bought Rs 2644 Cr of Equities till date and have sold Rs 3228 Cr of debt till date. In this Calendar Year, FII’S have sold close to Rs 1.14 lac Cr worth of Equities.
Benchmark Nifty closed flat (0%) y’day. DOW declined 365 points (1.10%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.41% y’day and Hang Seng climbed 1.56% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0629, Pound at 1.2041, Yen at 133..80
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1812 and WT1Crude at USD 78.50/Brent at USD 83.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.86% and 3 m libor closed at 4.77%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.32%.
Economic news: US 10-year yield rose notably overnight, ending up 0.109 at 3.860. The rally was believed to be triggered by news that China is further exiting pandemic restrictions and travel controls. The move was seen, on the one hand, as a boost to the global economy.
Data highlights: – US pending home sales declined -4% m/m.
Thursday’s calendar : US Weekly jobless claims
| USD/INR | 82.92 | 82.78 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.0629 | 1.0675 | 1.0607 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.2041 | 1.2125 | 1.2002 | |
| USD/JPY | 133.80 | 134.50 | 133.40 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0637 | 1.0667 | 1.0704 | 1.0734 | 1.0599 | 1.0570 | 1.0532 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2052 | 1.2102 | 1.2175 | 1.2225 | 1.1979 | 1.1929 | 1.1856 |
| USD/JPY | 133.98 | 134.56 | 135.08 | 135.65 | 133.46 | 132.88 | 132.36 |
| USD/INR | 82.85 | 82.92 | 82.99 | 82.78 | 82.71 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0470/1.0320 | 1.0740 | UP | SIDE<1.0440 |
| GBP/USD | 1.19/1.1650 | 1.2150/1.2350 | UP | SIDE<1.19 |
| USD/JPY | 130.50 | 133.50/138 | DN | SIDE>138 |
| USD/INR | 82.58/82.37 | 82.92/83.30 | UP | SIDE<82.58 |
| USD/CHF | 0.91 | 0.9375/09.9645 | DN | SIDE>0.9375 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50, 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.48. 50 day moving average is at 82.21.200 day moving average is at 79.31. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.58/82.37 and important resistance is at 82.92. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Jan contract are:
PP: 83, S1:82.92, S2:82.87, R1:83.05, R2:83.13.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
Exports be hedged on rally to 82.90+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0735. Next major support is at 1.0440/1.0290. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0735. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 0.9535.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2445 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.19. Important resistance is at 1.2350/1.2750.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 138. Important support is at 130.50. Major resistance is at 138/140.50/142.25.
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